Weather Central Blog

Day 4 recap and updae till now (day 6)

2011-06-28T14:02:00.002-05:00

Storms kept going but we were north of the real warm front, so there was a lot of cloud and drizzle. It was horrible visibility, and we were barely staying ahead of the advancing cold pool storms, which were themselves invisible.

Then, as we got toward southeast Nebraska, in the vicinity of Lincoln, the last storm on the line (tail-end Charlie) started to get an inflow notch. We decided to go investigate, as we were close, and still we could see nothing except for darkness. Doppler showed pretty big rotation had begun on the storm, and the inflow notch was becoming more and more pronounced. The hail algorithm was showing big hail potential, so we got out of there just in time for a tornado warning to be issued.

This was the first time many had ever heard a tornado siren. It was kind of eerie.

We followed this storm for another hour, during which time it showed varying degrees of good RADAR presentation, but it never got its act together to rotate down low.

Just at sunset, the low cloud started to get out of the way and we were treated to a lot of good structure, with a nice shelf cloud and perhaps a wall. Cattle in the field just in front of us were eve stopping in front of us to have their pictures taken.

We got into the hotel in Beatrice, and wouldn't you know it, the tornado siren starts going. The front desk clerk was about to evacuate the hotel but I looked at the RADAR and told her that the storm was past our location. Good. We were checking in and I didn't want to wait too long for nothing. ;)

Not a bad day though.

Yesterday was a down day. We drove to Sidney, NE, via Skeeter Barnes in Kearney, NE.

Today looks like a potential day in northeast Colorado. It's fairly marginal, though, because the dewpoints are in the low double digits and there's a substantial cap. We'll hope for the mountain-plains circulation to do its thing.

Day4 4:30 PM update

2011-06-26T16:40:00.004-05:00

So as we approached storms from the west, in Cherry county, they decided to look more awesome. We went through some small to medium (under 1") hail and came out on the other side seeing the storm look pretty good. As we pulled into Valentine for a stop, it got tornado warned. When we were done, we got in the vans and went south, narrowly avoiding the hail and other nasty stuff.

We lost data for a while (of course--it is Cherry county, after all) and when we got information back, we saw that the storm had morphed into a huge line. Outflow-dominant.

We went toward another storm that had formed ahead of the line, but by the time we got in viewing position it had also gotten swallowed up by the line.

We are now repositioning to southeast Nebraska, where big CAPEs are going and the shear is plenty impressive.

Day 4 forecast

2011-06-26T11:59:00.001-05:00

Today is a frustrating forecast and potentially huge day.

The parameters are becoming more clear with time, though. We saw multiple storm clusters this morning potentially messing up things, but we can now see, per the LNX 88D, the composite outflow/warm front is already lifting back northward. It appears this will be the main focus for today. The question in my mind, now, is whether the storms currently going will reintensify along this boundary or if things will die out, cook all afternoon and blast off later. If it's the former scenario, we're going to be playing catch-up for a couple of hours, as we're currently in Chadron, Nebraska. If it's the latter, we are repositioning for the nicest area. Valentine is our first stop.

The theta-e axis is currently aiming to Alliance and around there, and will likely move east throughout the day, so I suspect the zone of terror will be near the boundary in a corridor from Thetford-Yankton-Albion corridor.

I will try to update throughout the day, thinking out loud (so to speak) but I can't make any promises.

Day 3 recap

2011-06-26T11:44:00.002-05:00

Yesterday had such promise.

That's why it didn't work out. ;)

We hung out around Rapid City for most of the day, as the moisture was collecting there and convergence was very evident, as seen as a fine line of reflectivity on the RADAR. Towers were going up pretty vigorously in the area and we figured it was just a matter of time.

Towers went up just by us and we started out. The lead one died and we figured, okay, the one behind it will dominate. Which it did.

For about 20 minutes. In that 20 minutes, though, the character of the sky changed dramatically. It went from full of towering cumuli to clear with a few stable-looking altostratus bits. It was quite amazing to watch.

When we saw that, we knew the big storm potential was over: cap bust. Still, storms were moving into South Dakota from Nebraska, and we decided to target one of them. It produced an all right shelf, not as spectacular as the ones we have already seen on the trip.

We settled in for the night in Chadron, Nebraska.

Day 2 recap

2011-06-25T08:34:00.009-05:00

This was a day filled with all sorts of interesting little adventures. We left Billings, MT, aiming for western Nebraska and southwest SD (the dreaded Black Hills).

When we got to Buffalo, WY, we stopped for a brief time and saw a beautiful striated shelf cloud. A few pictures were taken, then a few more, and we carried on to areas east. Here are some pictures of it.

We accidentally punched through a core of a storm that was closer than we had thought, picking up 30 mm hail, and carried on toward the north. That storm was interesting because the shear for the day was straight-line, favouring splitting cells but favouring neither split to be dominant. The one that gave us our hail was actually the left split, and we could even see the rotating updraft of that left-moving storm.

Oh, I should mention that we had not had data since Buffalo, because someone (shame) had forgotten to pay the Verizon bill and the service was cut off.

In Lusk, WY, I got that straightened out and we carried on east, aiming for a cluster of storms near Chadron, NE, which was pretty much the only game in town. After driving for an hour, it became readily apparent that the storms weren't catchable, so we decided on a new target: storms dropping southeastward through the Black Hills.

The storm was a beast, according to RADAR, with a pretty nasty bowing segment and embedded hail hitting Rapid City. (It turns out the city got 2" hail over a large area.) Then a weird thing happened, something I'd never seen before: the bow echo transitioned to a potentially tornadic supercell. It never produced, but if it had, we would have been there. And, so far as I know, we were the only chasers there, too.

While sitting and watching it, some people who had gone through the hail core stopped and showed us their battle scars: their windshield was cracked from the 2" hail and there were many dents in their van. They had cell phone video to show us, too.

This is what the storm looked like (and our later location, so don't get confused) just before and after the transition.

That was quite the awesome day and one I'm sure none of us will forget.

Today we're going to target the area near here--there's no obvious wave and Black Hills magic will be the play, I think.

Day 1 recap

2011-06-25T08:18:00.003-05:00

This was a driving day, for sure! We started from Winnipeg bright and early, leaving from the parking lot at 7 AM. We were targeting Havre, MT; a big wave was coming in and we knew it would provide the lift we needed for good storms to go. Despite dewpoints being a little low, storms were apt to be good.

We got foiled on our trek westward by bad traffic in Minot due to flooding and a couple of mishaps I won't discuss here (although they're awfully funny, I will tell you in person if you ask) so we were in Malta, west of Havre, when the storms forming ahead of us morphed into a big line. We dropped south to see a great shelf cloud and experience some awesome outflow, then more pictures of the backside of the storm, with some people getting good night lightning shots.

For the first day, it was pretty awesome. The students had a blast, we had a blast, we got to know one another, and we are in position.

On our way

2011-06-23T12:18:00.002-05:00

We're just outside Minot, ND, getting ready for a gas and food stop. We're up and running with data (obviously) and we are on spotternetwork.org.

The parameters are still coming together for a central Montana play, so keep an eye out for us and wish us luck! :)

We're a go!

2011-06-22T11:57:00.003-05:00

So we leave tomorrow morning for the chase. I don't want to jinx it, but it's actually looking WAY better than previous runs of the GFS had been portraying.

We will be likely chasing tomorrow evening in either north-central Montana or adjacent areas of Saskatchewan and/or Alberta. Then the trip will almost certainly be dropping south; the moisture is just not making it north, but the flow is going to be in good position. As it sits right now, we could be anywhere between Kansas and North Dakota for the bulk of our trip. Not bad chase territory, if you ask me. For the most part. And now that I've said it, the storms will of course be in the Black Hills. :P

Bring your passports and be ready for some driving.

If your friends and family want to follow along with our location, please have them do so at the following address:

http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

Because of rules with SpotterNetwork we will be broadcasting under my name--Dave Carlsen--but rest assured it's all of us, not just me.

For other updates I should be posting on this site frequently--much more frequently than I could with CoD, and much more likely with pictures, because my duties with that chase group were different.

The chase is on! :D

U of M trip forecast: better late than never

2011-06-21T13:29:00.000-05:00

So here’s what it’s looking like now. I will post my ideal locations as though we had a teleportation machine. Since Thursday is the theoretical earliest we can start chasing, I will start from then and go as far into the future as Canada Day. I will give each day and run a completely arbitrary rating on a scale of 0 to 10, 0 being horrible and 10 being the best setup ever. Keep in mind this is model land and I’m basing my judgments on believing as though the depicted scenario were exactly what was going to happen.

NAM (12Z):
Thursday – northern Montana and/or adjacent areas of AB/SK (4 – instability is kind of weak and winds are a little far back)
Friday – northeast Colorado/Nebraska panhandle (6 – instability and deep shear are good but the directional turning is only okay)

GFS (12Z):
Thursday – central Alberta (5 – instability is weak but the winds are more favourable)
Friday – northwest Nebraska/southwest South Dakota (6 – instability and deep shear are pretty good but the directional turning is lacking)
Saturday – northeast Colorado/Nebraska panhandle (6 – instability and deep shear are pretty good but the directional turning is lacking; do we sense a theme here?)
Sunday – a few areas, including western Kansas (5 for okay deep and directional shear with good instability), the Nebraska panhandle (7 with good potential juxtaposition of parameters but it may be only okay) or northern South Dakota (6 with slightly weaker winds)
Monday – southeast Alberta (6, as wind fields are better but moisture is lacking) or northern South Dakota (6 for good instability but weaker deep wind shear, although nice turning)
Tuesday – western North Dakota (8, as wind fields, both deep and directional, and instability look better)
Wednesday – western Manitoba or southwest South Dakota (9 – instability and shear look really good)
Thursday – northwest South Dakota (4 mainly for capping)
Friday – western North Dakota (8 if the cap breaks)

ECMWF (00Z) (I can’t do forecast soundings, though, so I have to guess the ratings a bit more):
Thursday – eastern Alberta (6 depending on moisture)
Friday – eastern Montana, I think (5, based on it’s unclear but looks like there’s some potential)
Saturday – southern Saskatchewan (6)
Sunday – eastern Dakotas (7)
Monday – western Kansas but probably too capped (4)

GEM-Global (12Z and 00Z):
Thursday – northern Montana or southeast Alberta (5)
Friday – southeast Saskatchewan (6) or western Kansas if it’s not capped (6)
Saturday – central South Dakota (7)
Sunday – north-central Nebraska, specifically Cherry freaking county (7)
**now changing to 00Z run**
Monday – maybe the Colorado front range, but that looks marginal (2)
Tuesday – eastern Alberta (6)
Wednesday – eastern Dakotas or the Red River Valley (7)
Thursday – southeast Alberta (8)

NAEFS (00Z):
Thursday – southeast Alberta (5)
Friday – Nebraska panhandle (6)
Saturday – western Nebraska (6)
Sunday – western North Dakota (7)
Monday – western North Dakota (6)

Wow, that was exhausting. The models are seeming to key in on a potential play on Thursday in Alberta, but then they almost all unanimously drop the potential into the states, and well into them at that. Nebraska panhandle for a couple of days, or maybe into the Dakotas. It seems that the usual suspects, moisture and midlevel winds, are the main players here. Moisture is there south but the winds aren’t. And it seems the good midlevel flow dies as soon as it hits North America. Weird.

Classes have begun!

2011-05-10T11:03:00.002-05:00

So we're off to the races for teaching the 2011 version of the course. We're a week into it and, as always, there are some bumps along the road. But all in all, I think the classes have gone rather smoothly.

We have a couple of returning people, our drivers, who were involved in the course in 2009. As well, of course, there are the instructors (me, Pat and John, as well as Jay, who will not be able to join us on the trip.)

I won't be around for much of the rest of the course--I leave in a week on a storm chase vacation with a couple of friends. I will be blogging about it at this link, so check it out if you like.

I will forget your names. I make no qualms about that; don't take it personally, though--it's just a product of the fact that I have a horrible memory for names and the fact that I won't be seeing you much between now and then.

When we start the trip, too (seems like all I'm doing is talking about myself here), I will be exhausted. I will be on trip 4 with the College of DuPage, which ends on June 19, meaning I will be flying back to Winnipeg on the 20th. Just in time for our trip to start. (Yes, I will be able to get my laundry done, so you don't have to worry about a smelly Dave.)

I'm really looking forward to chasing with you all and getting to know you. It's going to be a blast.

Getting ready for the new chasing season

2011-02-12T22:09:00.002-06:00

I've been watching episodes of Storm Chasers and thereby increasing my itch to go chasing myself. This year it will be better than ever, with the equipment we will be running.

I, personally, have 25 days already booked to go chasing, and that doesn't include spot chases that will likely occur. 25 days. I can hardly wait.

We are running the U of M chase course this summer. We have all the equipment we need now, including laptops with North America-wide internet access, live GPS, proper intra-van communications and just little things that should make the trips go more smoothly.

It's about time. Well, almost about time.

A few changes and additions

2011-01-28T17:08:00.002-06:00

So there have been some changes going on in the background at Weather Central, some changes I hope will a) help with chasing in the Canadian prairies, and b) provide more weather information to Canadians than is currently out there.

In essence, we're starting to produce upper air and surface maps, both analyzed (for the surface) and unanalyzed. They're now available at the weather information page.

In addition, though, the hope is to start producing high-resolution satellite imagery for most regions of Canada (where available, i.e. not north of 60). In short, the aim is to produce a page similar to the College of DuPage's, although with Canadian coverage. The Canadian coverage at CoD is, I think by necessity (and lack thereof), lacking. In other words, they have the amount of coverage they have so that they a) don't overwhelm their servers but still b) have what they need for prairie chasing.

So I'm going to start designing the access page for it, and I imagine the first blush of it will be a pretty blatant ripoff from the CoD page. If you have any recommendations on what it should look like, let me know--either drop a comment below or email me.

Dave's going chasing with CoD

2010-06-09T00:17:00.000-05:00

So I leave in the morning for a chase with CoD. We're planning on leaving Thursday to be in place for a Friday chase. The pattern looks good to catch some good storms, especially on the first couple of days of the chase. Here's hoping!

I plan on blogging about the chase here, when I can. But other links that will help you keep up with us are here:

Our GPS location
Our Twitter account (I will likely be tweeting)
Paul's blog

Keep up!

So much rain - why?

2010-05-28T08:27:00.003-05:00

A lot of the time it's not well-understood why the type of thunderstorms we're getting, elevated thunderstorms, happen. As I write this, I have had over 30 mm of rain at my house, and it shows no signs of stopping anytime soon.

So here's my explanation.

Relatively moist air is advected in from the south on the low-level jet. (This jet increases at night because of the nocturnal inversion, thereby squeezing the effective volume through which the air is forced.) It gets lifted at the warm front, the air cools and the moisture contained therein is forced to condense. The condensation releases latent heat which causes the rising air to cool less quickly than would otherwise happen. If the temperatures aloft are cool enough, the rising air is warmer than the ambient air and you therefore have positively buoyant air rising, and it thus rises by itself: a thunderstorm.

Here's the surface plot, showing the warm front sitting in northern North Dakota, which is a favoured location for us to get these thunderstorms (which we call elevated thunderstorms and "nocturnals" if they happen at night):

Also here's the RADAR from a while ago showing the band of storms to the west of Winnipeg:

How about showing the low-level jet--this is the VAD (velocity-azimuth display) from the RADAR just south of Grand Forks, ND:

And the output from my backyard weather station:

Nashville flooding

2010-05-02T13:45:00.002-05:00

The news stories are painting a picture of a story that seems to happen every couple of years. Flooding in Nashville, TN from heavy rains.

As I did last time, I'll include here the 6-hour rainfall amounts. The numbers are in hundredths of an inch.

279
334
18
1
557

As I write this, the storms continue to pound Nashville, with another 68 hundredths of an inch in the past hour, bringing the total to 12.57 inches, or about 320 mm.

Let's hope that the water drains for them quickly.

(Cross-posted to Dave and Justin.)

New blog, this one sticking around

2010-04-22T13:57:00.002-05:00

For some spirited debate and sometimes boring agreement on weather events, especially the severe variety, I am collaborating with Justin to produce Dave and Justin Debate the Weather.

This blog will still hang out here, and it'll be more focused on U of M stuff.

Storms - yoink!

2010-04-13T11:39:00.002-05:00

So this morning we were supposed to get a bunch of storms. Good storms. And they didn't happen. Bah!

Why didn't they happen?

Well, it seems that the moisture just isn't making it into the system enough to cause storms. In fact, there aren't even showers forming, it's so dry. As well, the main forcing is well to our west, but it was something I expected was going to be overcome by the instability. Fool me once, and so on.

I know it's only April. But still. SDS runs rampant in me.

The sun is rising!

2010-02-03T03:46:00.001-06:00

Up north the sun is beginning to make itself seen again.

To wit, here's the forecast for Pond Inlet, latitude 72'42"N:

Today: Clear. Temperature steady near minus 25.
Tonight: Clear. Low minus 30.
Thursday: Sunny. High minus 24.

I bolded the interesting parts: that today it will be clear, whereas tomorrow it will be sunny. The forecast production software decides, based on some algorithm, which word will be used. Today's sunset is slated for 10:44 and sunset 14:07, for a total of 3 hours and 23 minutes of daylight.

(Interestingly, the same sort of thing happens in the summer, where northerly regions get "sunny" as a forecast in the tonight period.)

Nunavut major blizzard

2009-12-29T15:14:00.002-06:00

There's a major blizzard going on in Nunavut right now. Here's a sampling of observations from around the region:

Baker Lake:
CYBK 291400Z 31024G35KT 0SM +BLSN SKC M26/M30 A2976 RMK BLSN6 SLP080
CYBK 291429Z 31028G33KT 0SM +BLSN SKC RMK BLSN6 LAST OBS NXT OBS AT 30TH AT 0600Z

Rankin Inlet:
CYRT 291700Z 33020G30KT 0SM +BLSN SKC M26/M32 A2959 RMK BLSN7 SLP025

Arviat:
CYEK 291700Z 31022G29KT 0SM +BLSN VV001 M25/M29 A2982 RMK BLSN8 SLP101

Repulse Bay:
CYUT 291500Z 34026G35KT 1/4SM -SN +BLSN OVC015 M18/M20 A2913 RMK BLSN6SC2 OCNL 0M VIS / LAST OB / NXT 301300Z SLP869

Resolute Bay:
CYRB 291600Z 02042G47KT 1/8SM +BLSN BKN007 M25/M25 A2966 RMK BLSN5SF1 RVR RWY35T 500 FT SLP056

Gjoa Haven:
CYHK 291600Z 33038G44KT 0SM +BLSN VV001 M27/M32 A2955 RMK BLSN8 LAST STFD OBS/NEXT 301300 UTC SLP014

This is a major blizzard and is expected to last at least 4 days in some of the communities, specifically Baker Lake and Arviat. There are two things to note here. The first is that all of their airports are closed; they all have lowest landing limits at something like 1 to 1 1/2 mile visibility and 1000 foot ceilings. The second is that all of these places get all their supplies (food, fuel, etc.) by airplane, aside from intrepid hunters who brave the weather for food.

Merry Christmas!

2009-12-20T22:12:00.001-06:00

I love listening to this every year. It's so ... Christmasy!

Calgary: wow.

2009-12-04T15:14:00.003-06:00

As you may know, Calgary is right now getting smoked by a brutal winter storm. Lots of snow, high winds, near-zero visibilities and general chaos are occurring.

West of the city there's an airport called Springbank. Check out their latest observation:

CYBW 042100Z 33027G35KT 1/8SM SHSN +BLSN VV001 -5.3/-8.2 A2976 RMK SN8 SNOW DRIFTS 30 INCHES SLP143 53009 SKYXX=

30 inch snow drifts. It's not common there, I'm sure.

Ch ... ch .. changes

2009-11-18T13:21:00.002-06:00

So I was just out for a walk and marveling at how beautiful (for this time of year) it is out there. It got me to wondering--is my memory short or is it really that nice out there? Was I just inventing a level of awesomeness because of the terrible most of the year (weatherwise) we've had?

Nope. Last year it was terrible. 17 degrees colder than the current 9 at my backyard weather station.

Let's hope that this winter continues warmer than normal. I had enough winter last winter to last me years and years.

U of M storm chasing calendar

2009-10-16T14:29:00.002-05:00

We have put together a calendar! Check out a slide show of it by clicking on the link below the cover image:

Click here for the link

To order, email me.

Word verification

2009-10-07T23:30:00.002-05:00

Just a quick housekeeping note--because of comment spam, I have decided to turn on word verification.

U of M website story

2009-09-25T18:38:00.001-05:00

We were written up on the U of M homepage.

Go check it out.

Odd report

2009-08-21T12:06:00.002-05:00

All sorts of information comes into the weather office. From time to time, something ... nonstandard ... comes in.

We get pilot reports, what we call PIREPs. (Inventive, eh?) These usually have information about upper-level winds, turbulence and icing. This one that came in a few days was a little different.

UACN10 CYQK 142050
WG
UA /OV CYRL 270018 /TM 2050 /FL017 /TP NORS /RM CYRL REPORTING WIND CALM/PILOT REPORTS A SHEEP FARM ON THE WATER

Ummmmmmmmmmm, okay.

Time lapse videos

2009-07-28T21:19:00.003-05:00

So I finally got around to posting some videos.
Both of these videos are amalgams of pictures taken on a tripod, about 10 seconds apart.

The first one is of the left-moving, anticyclonically-rotating supercell we caught in Wyoming.
Here's the video

The second is of the LP-looking storm we caught in Texas.
Here's the video

Enjoy!

Day 10: back to CoD

2009-07-20T11:02:00.004-05:00

This was pretty much strictly a travel day, as we had a long haul in front of us--from Wichita, KS to Glen Ellyn, IL. About 11 hours.

We stopped for lunch in Kansas City, at a bbq place called Rosedale BBQ. It was pretty darn good; I had the burnt ends and then Paul and I shared a ham sandwich. Nice!

On the way back we were watching severe weather unfold, as we forecast, in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. If only the trip had been a day longer...

Here are a few pictures from day 9's chase. I'm so tired.

Day 9: Wichita, KS

2009-07-19T01:17:00.002-05:00

We weren't sure we'd be chasing today at all, but here we are, in Wichita, after chasing. We weren't feeling at all great because of the brutal hotel last night--it stayed hot all night despite the cranked air conditioning, some of the toilets didn't flush properly and some of the showers didn't drain properly. The "swimming pool" was an under-construction mess that looked really creepy at night, and the reception at the desk in the morning when confronted with these problems was not courteous.

I will not be staying at the Lubbock in ever again. Neither will anyone on the trip.

Anyhow, after getting out of there, most of us with 2 or 3 hours' sleep (although me being the only one used to it on this trip), we stopped at IHOP in Plainview--both to get some coffee and to clear our minds to think. We looked at information and decided that the risk for good storms was high enough to stick around for most of the day.

And boy, were we rewarded.

We got a supercell pretty much right from initiation in the Oklahoma panhandle and followed it, as well as a sister to it to the northwest, for the better part of 4 hours. The main one had, at times, a great RADAR presentation. However, the northwest one looked very beautiful, pretty LP-ish. Anyhow, we were getting close to the time we had to leave and so we delayed moving for a bit; our decision was quickly made for us as we all had to pile into the vans in a hurry--big hail began to fall. A lot of quarters and loonies; there were some golf balls and maybe some baseballs, too; I wasn't confident enough in that, though, so the report we made was of golf balls.

We are in Wichita, KS and we will be back in the Chicago area tomorrow evening. Pictures won't be forthcoming tonight, sorry, because I didn't sleep well last night and that bed is calling my name.

Pictures will be on their way, however.

Good night.

Day 8: Lubbock, Texas

2009-07-18T00:27:00.004-05:00

We got up this morning and anticipated storm initiation in southeast Colorado mid-afternoon. Well, after stopping in Dalhart for lunch, we saw storms initiating to the northwest. In New Mexico. So we went: my first time ever in that state! :)

The storm had, at times, okay rotation on RADAR and visually, but it decided to give it up after a while. So we went to another storm that was percolating to its northwest.
We got there and the storm had amazing supercell structure. It showed some good rotation for quite a while but eventually died out. Here's a picture of what it looked like:

Another storm was going pretty hard near Amarillo, so we went for it. It looked okay when we got there, but it was definitely outflow-y. Still a supercell, at least based on RADAR.

Which took us to Lubbock - and Cagle Steaks. Best. Ribeye. Ever.

We then came here to our hotel--or should I say our fleabag hotel. It is more or less clean, but lacks enough towels and the rooms are about 400 degrees, but to be fair the air conditioning works just fine.

A nice day, all in all. We actually got 3 supercells and steaks at Cagle's. In July.

FYI, this chase trip is the farthest south, by a long shot, CoD has gone on a trip 5.

Day 7: Borger, TX (yes, Texas!)

2009-07-16T23:06:00.003-05:00

The day started off with a lot of uncertainty but some optimism that we would see some good storms in southwest Kansas.

Until the MCS decided to blow up in Nebraska and send an outflow boundary southward. This outflow ended up blasting southward to sit from about Oklahoma City to Dodge City by mid-afternoon. Our trip out west was therefore uncertain, as the outflow didn't seem to want to stop, and thus instability was uncertain.

Well, after a great BBQ lunch in Wichita, KS (Hog Wild Pit BBQ, and the elderly woman whose job was clearing the tables was so incredibly nice), we kept going west toward Dodge City, where if there would be no storms, we would at least be in place for tomorrow's chase.

Well, on the way, it turns out some storms fired off on the outflow boundary, but they didn't have a whole bunch of shear. So they exhibited multicell characteristics, maybe occasionally supercell (a split) and then one storm seemed to take over a bit; at times the RADAR presentation of it was quite good (nice meso, inflow notch) and at those same times it looked better in real life.

Oh yeah, did I mention that by this time we were in Texas? For CoD, not even close to the first time, but for me, yes.

As predicted

2009-07-16T01:26:00.001-05:00

We went to KC and Jess and Jim's. Mmmmmmm.
Tomorrow looks not too bad in west-central Kansas, and the next day after that in eastern Colorado.

Keep your fingers crossed!

Day 5: some multicells and the highest point in Iowa

2009-07-15T09:29:00.002-05:00

Yesterday was hyped up to be a better day than it ended up being, for us at least, by a long shot.

Storms were certain to develop, but because of a) linear forcing (i.e. a cold front) and b) veering winds near said front, the low-level shear wasn't enough to keep them very organized. We worked hard even to get what we got, which was some multicell structure that at times exhibited a little more organization.

During the day, we happened by the highest point in Iowa (actually we didn't see the plaque, so we weren't quite at the highest point--I didn't know the plaque was there, and nothing else looked any higher) so that was a point of interest. Modest interest. ;)

No chasing today--it's a pretty dead day. We're going to Jess and Jim's for steaks and play central Kansas tomorrow.

Day 4: big supercell day to Grand Island, NE

2009-07-14T01:13:00.005-05:00

We started off this morning with a target of Belle Fourche, SD in mind. We got to lunch in Newcastle, SD and saw towers going up to the northeast of us--in a pretty favourable area. We looked at the situation and they issued a tornado watch, so we took off eastward. So goes chasing.

The ride through the Black Hills was interesting. There was a lot of nausea in the back, although nobody had to pull over to un-eat lunch. After we finally got through Rapid City, we got close to a now-tornado-warned supercell near Wall (go to Wall Drug). It showed some okay rotation and lowering so we decided to stay on it.

During a gas stop the rotation tightened up considerably and the storm looked like it might drop a tornado. It didn't, but it augured well for us.

To make a long story short, we chased the tornado-warned supercell for about 8 hours, sometimes with big rotation and lowerings, sometimes with less rotation (at least down low).

A couple of times we stopped to watch the storm ingesting huge amounts of air, evidenced by the 30 to 35 knot inflow winds that kicked up some dust in a series of fields, giving us brief bouts of zero visibility. Seriously zero.

The storm took us to Valentine, NE, where we gassed up quickly and picked up a meal on the go ("meal" is being generous with the kind of foods one often eats on the road) and went southeast. The storm was looking okay but potentially polluted by another storm to its south, so we made the decision to keep going southeast instead of south at a junction.

Bad move.

The storm ingested the new updraft and blew up into a huge HP supercell that looked AMAZING on RADAR. After one false start (almost having to push the vans out of the mud) we got onto a road that took us east toward the storm. It wended its way through a bunch of ranches and splashing through some pretty deep pools of water, and got us to the highway.

Where the mothership was waiting for us.

You talk about it in class and see pictures of it, but until you see a mothership supercell in person, you don't really understand what it's all about. The inflow into the storm from the east was incredible; we estimate 50 to 60 mph, and, naturally, being in the Nebraska sand hills we all got sandblasted. The striations on the mid-level rotation were a delight. Here's a picture; it's a good one, but it doesn't even do justice to what we were seeing.

Or here's a pseudo-HDR version:

It finally got dark and so we got a few lightning pictures, and that's the end of that day. A pretty good day, all around, even though our initial forecast target area apparently got a big tornado today.

Whatever. We saw an amazing super long-lived supercell, and the prospects for tomorrow, pending MCS pollution tonight, are great.

Day 3: Lusk, WY

2009-07-13T00:53:00.002-05:00

We started off the morning with little in the way of expectations--the pattern looked almost the same as the previous day. So we decided to take our time and, first things being first, get some lunch at The Stone Ridge Grille at the Mariana Butte Golf Course in Loveland, CO. In addition to an omelet station, they had prime rib. Sweet.

After a great lunch we drifted north and intercepted a weak storm that was crossing a boundary (outflow?) south of Cheyenne. It died and we kept going. Finally we got a storm northeast of Wheatland, WY that had a funny look to it. It kind of looked like a supercell, except the updraft base was on the north side of the storm. Why would that be? Turns out it was an anticyclonic supercell. Here's the picture to show what it looked like:

After that storm died we took off to another storm, this one a weakly-rotating long-lived storm about 60 miles to our northwest. After being slowed by a great big convoy (begin singing in your head; I can wait) of army vehicles, we made it to the storm just in time for another storm to poop out an outflow and interfere with it.

Ah well.

We came to Lusk only to find out that the only eatery open on a Sunday night here is Subway. The young woman dealt with our sudden influx of people with grace. I was impressed.

The new SPC day 1 is out and it's got the main area right where we've been looking the past few days--NW SD-ish. It's time for me to go to bed so that I can analyze things properly in the morning and get us to the right area.

Good night.

Day 2: Greeley, CO

2009-07-12T08:53:00.001-05:00

Yesterday was as clear as mud. There was little in the way of obvious focused forcing and so storms could have gone up anywhere in a huge area. We ended up playing the cumulus field in the Nebraska panhandle until they didn't go any higher, at which time we took off to a decent-looking storm in northern Colorado. One that was moving toward the north. We figured, okay, it's moving north now so when it takes a right turn we'll be in business.

That didn't happen.

Another set of storms went up in a hurry to this storm's southeast, and they looked good both visually and on RADAR--from what we could see. We got somewhat close until the hail started. It came down as dimes and nickels and then got to slightly bigger than quarters. We hauled it out of there when the hail appeared it was going to get even bigger--no need to lose a windshield.

After we got away from that storm it decided to fizzle anyhow.

Farther west there were some storms going up that looked pretty good and wouldn't have their inflow polluted, so we took off in that direction and took a look. Meh.

After that we had had enough and went to the hotel in Greeley, CO.

On the way into Greeley we saw why the storms weren't behaving as expected: the hodograph from the 00Z Denver sounding was almost exactly the opposite of what you'd look for with a right-moving supercell. Well, that and the speeds weren't as good. So what we saw, storms moving north and the inflow on the north sides of the storms, was well-explained with that. Oh and no storm ever exhibited rotation, so all we got was a couple of multicell storms.

Yes, large hail from a multicell. In fact, there was a credible report of 2" (50 mm) hail from the storm we abandoned. Why would that be? Steep lapse rates. Even though storms weren't persisting, they were lasting long enough and were ingesting enough moisture to produce large, hard ice cubes.

Today looks very similar to today, and then things look to be on the upswing for a couple of days.

Northwest Ontario tornado

2009-07-11T08:15:00.002-05:00

On another note, the first deadly tornado in Canada in 3 years occurred the other day. It was somewhere in the forested area of northwestern Ontario. The video, in a likely time-sensitive link, is at this link. According to my sources, it looked classic on RADAR.

It's a tragedy to have people killed in a tornado. Although I love to watch them, I (and most, probably all) people I know never. Ever. Want to see anyone hurt by them. This, in part, is why we chase--aside from the aesthetic beauty of a storm, we're there to help warn of impending danger. It's what we do.

Some servers down, and I need to have a better brain

2009-07-11T08:03:00.002-05:00

Some of the weather servers are down all across North America. Data feeds are not working; technicians are on the problem, but we may not have analysis maps this morning.

And last night, when we got into town I realized that I had left my toothpaste, toothbrush and stuff like that back in Chicago. No problem--I would just have to find a store to buy some replacement stuff.

I went to the store, picked up what I needed, came back, had a swim (it's good to get your move on on a trip like this, even if it is for a half hour or so), brushed, flossed (Dr. Harris would be proud) and went to bed. This morning I got up and took my bag into the bathroom, and found the stuff that I had left in Chicago. I had packed it in a side pocket, unlike anything I would ever do in my prior packing style. So now I have three toothbrushes, 2 things of floss, and many other doubles in my bag. It's okay--it's not like floss goes bad.

Chalk it up to being tired yesterday?

Day 1: Lincoln, NE

2009-07-10T22:33:00.002-05:00

We went west, then south, back north and west. We broke out into the sun west of Des Moines after an MCS screwed up the atmosphere for us. Past Omaha and into Lincoln, with nary a storm in sight.

We went for dinner at Skeeter Barnes, where I had what ties for the best prime rib I've ever had. Ever. And alongside it was served some really awesome coleslaw--dressed with peanuts and a sesame dressing.

Tomorrow looks not too bad, but with conditions. We'll see more clearly in the morning here we might go.

Clear as mud

2009-07-10T10:17:00.002-05:00

We're sitting in the lab, trying to figure out where to go. There's an MCS blasting across Iowa, and it could end up polluting the atmosphere but hopefully leaving an outflow boundary. We should head toward the Quad Cities and see if things clarify from there.

In Chicago, ready to go

2009-07-09T07:36:00.002-05:00

This evening we have the preparation class and then it's off tomorrow to actually chase. Right now there seem to be about 3 targets: eastern Iowa/western Illinois, north of Omaha, and far western Nebraska. Which one will it be?

A new trip

2009-07-08T09:21:00.003-05:00

As you may or may not know, I'll be going with the College of DuPage on their trip 5, which leaves Friday. They've hired me on to be the forecaster assistant, which means I'll be doing much of what I was doing on the U of M trip without the driving.

I'll keep you posted here as to what we see and where we are.

So long as we're in the US (a likely prospect for most of the trip, at this point) we will have the GPS tracker on. Check it out at this link:
CoD chase tracker

Or to see all the chasers' locations (well, those who broadcast their locations) check here:
Spotter network

Pictures up

2009-07-05T20:47:00.003-05:00

I have gone through the pictures and posted some of them; I'm not overwhelming the site with too many, but a good mix of what we saw and experienced. Including the small Canada Day celebration we had in South Dakota that I had forgotten to mention. Or the few pics from the Pizza Ranch in Spearfish where the manager re-opened the place just for us.

The link is here.

Pictures soon

2009-07-05T18:46:00.002-05:00

I'm slowly working through the pictures from the trip. All 3180 of them. And I'm still missing a lot of them. But hopefully I'll have them organized into days and post them on the photobucket account tomorrow.

I'm still recovering.

In Topeka, sorry for the lack of a post last night

2009-07-04T08:42:00.002-05:00

We were in a tornado watch yesterday. The warm front play was our only play, really, and we got to the right place in time, just south of the front and east of the surface low.

And then storms blew up in the warm sector to our south. What?

They were forming in air that had T/Td of 38/16, so they were very high-based. Moving northeast, they would hopefully favourably interact with the warm front, so we got ahead of one (dodging between hail cores) and saw the updraft base evolve from a squall-looking thing to a supercell stack-of-plates or donut updraft. Yes, pictures to come. The things didn't seem to want to take off in the boundary layer, or not completely, or maybe they didn't ingest the shear properly or maybe even the moisture--we'll discuss that today. Whatever the reason, they didn't really get going until nightfall, when Doppler-warned storms popped up, and yes, we were on the right ones. A couple had some pretty interesting looks, maybe some rotation from time to time, but they were mainly outflow-dominant.

We went to the IHOP in Junction City for dinner, where the storms caught up with us and gave us a wicked light show, then we had about an hour's drive to Topeka where, along the way, we were treated to another great light show.

I went out for a walk in the rain when we got in, and it was about 22 degrees. Very warm rain. Beautiful.

Now it's time to take off, and I think we're going back to Winnipeg, but we will be back fairly late--midnight is my guess. I will gather pictures along the way and hopefully post them within a day or 2.

The world's longest driveway, aka the road to nowhere

2009-07-03T00:11:00.003-05:00

We started off in Spearfish again, targeting Chadron, NE. Storms once again went early, and we ended up going after a pretty nice outflow-dominant severe-warned storm northeast of Hot Springs, SD. We got some pictures and then got together for some data, and we took off to the south.

That's where things got fun. The storm had kicked out an outflow that was blasting eastward quickly, almost keeping ahead of us; we did finally get to a storm in the good air, but we were on the wrong side of it; the Nebraska sand hills aren't good for roads, either, so we had to go farther east than we wanted. We finally got a road south--something sort of sketchily named like Road 16-spur, but our GPSs and maps indicated that it was a good road.

Along the way, the storm decided to look STUPID good! Some called the partially-obscured wall cloud the "foot of God". Not that that region would have much to stomp.

Getting there:
After going through the national forest and getting onto "better" roads, we crossed a cattleguard and sloshed on some gravel/dirt. Where there were cattle. Chase 1 had to stop, idle for a bit, and even honk. The cattle (a mother and her calf) looked at the van indignantly until the second honk, when they finally looked with contempt at the vans. Then banging on the windshield finally got them moving and got out of the way. The calf took off down the road; not off the road, but down the road. And then eventually went. Oh, did I fail to mention that we passed not one, but 2 slow-moving (VERY slow-moving) vehicles on the way? So when we got close to the highway we were seeking, the road ended. I'm not kidding. It just ended. No fanfare, no signs, no nothing; just a house there and befuddled people wondering what the heck 4 vans full of people and festooned in antennae was doing in their driveway. Their driveway, for heaven's sake! We just drove about 30 miles along what was essentially a driveway for 4 houses. The second vehicle we had passed eventually came along and told Chase 3 how he knew he'd be seeing us again, chuckling to himself.

By this time, the storm started to die and nothing else was worth chasing.

We went to Valentine, where we are having an ... ahem ... unwinding party, for the night.

We're all in good spirits because that's a really great story, the kind of story we're going to remember for a long time.

Well, that and the fact that tomorrow looks pretty good. Here's hoping. Target (right now): HA, you thought I'd give it up?!

A picture

2009-07-02T09:42:00.002-05:00

From Tuesday's chase. More will be coming after we're done--looks like too much driving to be able to post more here.

Nice, eh?

Canada Day chase

2009-07-02T01:43:00.002-05:00

So it was another day of sitting and waiting for things to go. We sat at a gas station south of Rapid City, waited for more certain information and when it did, we went. Storms were obviously wanting to go over the Black Hills, but would they go farther?

An area of enhanced cumuli formed south of the Hills, and we decided to go take a closer look. As we approached, a storm fired and it was just north of us, moving straight south. Well, if you've ever seen a map of the area, the roads are few and far between. So we got caught, and hailed on (and dented) for our troubles. Knowing that there was sizable hail in the storm, we opted to take the only safe route--west into Wyoming and then south and east into Nebraska. All the way there the storm was looking better and better--getting taller and the inflow kept lowering. And when we got within 10 miles of it, it died. Quickly.

GAAAAH!

Tomorrow looks about as certain as today did, maybe with slightly better wind fields, but it could be a large area. The next day, however, is rife with interesting possibilities. Southeastern Nebraska, anyone?

I've been asked about pictures. They will come. There has just been so much driving that posting them has been next to impossible. But they will appear.

Happy Canada Day, and more uncertainty

2009-07-01T11:50:00.002-05:00

Today we're going to see Mount Rushmore and then do a data/lunch stop in Rapid City. It seems the 2 areas are the Black Hills (magic) and the NE/SD border south thereof. The ingredients aren't great, but this place seems to have some magic attached to it.

On another note, southeastern SK will go pretty big, I think (again). Wxdog mentioned (quite rightly) that we would have done well to sit in Weyburn for 3 days. Hindsight, and all that.

Happy Canada Day!

Day 2: good storms, including a spectacular supercell

2009-07-01T02:08:00.002-05:00

We got initiation to the north and west of Glendive. A storm seemed to be taking over to the NW so we took off in that direction--sort of. We ended up taking a road that ran NE-SW. The storm got tornado-warned (trained spotters, funnel cloud, I really doubt it) and then it kind of got absorbed.

A bunch of storms decided to fire off, and the main one seemed to take over. Where was it? Just east of Glendive. D'oh!

So we went back to GDV, dodging some sizable (nickel) hail, and then got stuck behind the now-tornado-warned storm because ThreatNet showed it was putting down some huge hail. We eventually got to the other side and observed a pretty good updraft base from a closed weigh scale. It eventually pooped out and we had to go east.

We did a pit stop east of Dickinson, and the storms (rather inconveniently) were at that time in a RADAR dead zone. Well, mostly--there are actually a couple of hail suppression RADARs out in western ND, but they don't get ingested into ThreatNet so we were essentially blind.

Anyhow, whilst at the pit stop, Chase 1 got a wi-fi signal and saw the storm via the intert00bz, yes I'm tired, and blasted south. Uh, okay, what's going on? We followed them and asked over and over again on the walkie-talkies what they had seen--no answer, until someone in Chase 1 texted us and told us their walkies had died. D'oh!

Well, when we got a good 40 miles south of I-94, we saw why they were in such an almighty hurry-a well-defined wall cloud was off to our southwest, and it looked good. I mean the kind of wall cloud that produces tornadoes good.

I won't keep you in suspense--while we were on it, it never did, but what it did do was give us lots of tantalizing looks at striations, stacked plates and some exquisite colours interspersed while the whole lot of us shutterbugs snapped away. This was by far the best storm the U of M storm chase class has ever intercepted. We kept following it on its SSE course, getting into the inflow air (warm and moist) and then letting ourselves be blasted with outflow (cool and moist, winds about 60 mph). This went on until sunset, when we happened into the town of Buffalo, SD, where we decided we needed to eat. And so we did. Just as we were going into the place to eat (well, most people; I had gone back to the van because I had forgotten something, and some locals stopped me and chatted me up about storms for about 5 minutes) the outflow came through, thoroughly sandblasting everything. I still have some grit in my teeth (yes, I will brush) and my hair.

We're overnighting in Spearfish, SD, just northeast of Rapid City. Tomorrow (well, today, and HAPPY CANADA DAY!) we should be somewhere around here--maybe a bit more south, but the Black Hills will likely have something to say about where we can chase. But we will figure out the details in the morning--analysis saved our hide this morning (was there ever any doubt?) and, if anything will tomorrow and the next day and forevermore, it's analysis. Hand analysis.

Analysis, diagnosis, prognosis. It's amazing when the theory works out so well.

Glendive, MT

2009-06-30T13:52:00.002-05:00

We're still trying to figure it out. A hope is the line of cumuli so our south and a wave approaching the line from the west. The road network sucks around here, though.

There's also some development to the north. We're going to wait for more data and see if we can glean some more information and make a decision.

One more note--breakfast

2009-06-30T08:57:00.000-05:00

Biscuits and gravy? Worst. Hotel. Breakfast. Food. Ever.

Day 1: busted in ND

2009-06-30T07:36:00.002-05:00

So we kept going west until we were almost out of west. Okay, not quite, but we got to our initial target area late in the afternoon and lo and behold, there was an agitated field of cumulus to our west. Convergence and instability were very good in that area, and so we were happy.

Then we looked at the RADAR. A monster supercell had formed where we had discounted the chances--far southern Saskatchewan. This storm was beautiful on RADAR--it had intense rotation, a good kidney bean shape, it had it all. And it was the only storm in town.

So of course we decided to go after it. We got out of the badlands west of Dickinson, ND to see the storm--it was 200 km away, but we could see it. Hard towers going up along an extension of the same moisture boundary that we were chasing--there was just much less instability there. So why was it going?

I think it was more jet-induced--way more lift there to help out the pitiful instability.

Anyhow, when we got within about 100 km of it, its look changed dramatically. Instead of hard towers flying up into it, the storm started to look all fuzzy. Not good. Mobile ThreatNet confirmed what we were seeing--after about 4 hours of life, the storm was dying.

So we stopped in a scenic spot to take some pictures and then bailed for the evening.

What caused the storm to die? I like Wxdog's hypothesis--that the storm had moved so hard right (south, pretty much, instead of southeast--that while ingesting the better moisture, it also had a chance for the dry west winds to its west to catch up to it, polluting the updraft. Whatever the cause, it just decided to stop doing its thing. (And no, back in our initial target area, nothing went.)

So here we are in Dickinson, ND, getting ready to go to the Black Hills. Today looks pretty good, as does tomorrow in Nebraska. SPC seems to agree with us, and today will have what yesterday was lacking--Black Hills magic.

Also, today will have much less driving. Good deal.

Fargo

2009-06-29T12:42:00.000-05:00

Quick lunch stop and then heading west toward Bismarck. RUC soundings and even WRF show good CAPE and moderate shear. I suspect we may see some high-based supercells today. Time to go.

Now that the contest is out of the way

2009-06-29T00:23:00.002-05:00

My contribution to the contest (were I able to win) would be Mott, ND.
That being said, each of the entries has validity. And who knows who will win?

It looks like things will get better from day to day during the chase. Moisture will increase, flow will sharpen up, and we should be able to be in position. Touch wood, I think our prospects for a) chaseable storms and b) picturesque storms are very good indeed.

Now I really need to get to bed because we leave in less than 8 hours.

Contest submission closed

2009-06-29T00:19:00.002-05:00

Ah, so you were waiting till the last minute.
I have 8 entries submitted--7 official and one unofficial. The locations surprised me, but each has its merits.

They are:
Abilene, TX (2)
Lisbon, ND
North Platte, NE (2)
Le Mars, IA
Minneapolis, MN
Miles City, MT

Good luck to all!

Contest update

2009-06-28T23:22:00.000-05:00

That's better. As of 11:23 PM I have 4 entries--3 students, 1 not.

Contest? What contest?

2009-06-28T22:51:00.001-05:00

As of 10:51 PM (68 minutes before the contest closes) I have received a total of one entry. And that's not even from an eligible student.

We're going!

2009-06-28T15:40:00.004-05:00

After much discussion, we have decided to leave on our chase in the morning.

Things are starting to come together for about 5 days of okay-to-good chasing stateside. Moisture has been swept away by a cold front, but it shall gradually return, so that by next weekend the dewpoints will once again approach 20. The thing is, the farther west you go, the lower the dewpoints need to be to cause great storms.

As always, I'm excited and nervous about what the week will bring; no doubt, though, it will be unforgettable.

Note about this blog: once we're on the road, I will likely update more than once a day, pretty much whenever I can. I'll try to include our location, our proposed destination and any interesting stories that may come up. Also I'll discuss model output and differences, and the implications on what we may see.

CONTEST and Saturday evening musings

2009-06-27T23:28:00.003-05:00

First off, the musings: so today was my last day at work for about a month. And it ended with a bang!

At just after 8 PM, Doppler RADAR was really showing something bad, and I had to issue a tornado warning for areas near Winkler and Gretna. We didn't get any reports, but it wouldn't surprise me to hear about a spin-up in the region.

Now onto the contest:

We are offering a small prize to students in this year's class for winning the contest. It's pretty simple, really. (And I wasn't given much in the way of direction for it, so I'll make up the rules and terms of the contest.)

Give us a target for the first day of the chase. For the sake of the contest, let's say the "first day" is Monday, June 29. I want the name of a town and its state or province. Email your entry by 11:59 PM Sunday June 28 to me (you have my email address). The winner will be the person with the most severe weather reports within 100 km (or suitable radius decided by the judges) of the target area; the severe weather reports include wind, hail and tornado; tornado reports will garner 2x the points of the other kinds of severe weather.

Like I said, the prize is a small prize, but the idea is more to flex your forecasting muscle. Let's see your best!

00/25Z run: last forecast by me, and then it's your turn

2009-06-25T00:38:00.005-05:00

Before I go into this forecast, let me say that it's still uncertain as to where we'll be going; it doesn't seem uncertain, though, that we will see storms, and likely good ones, too.
The GFS is pretty much the only one from which I've been able to get any indication about instability; let me say, too, that the instability progs have been all over the map (literally). So for instance, day 1 looks like a split between dynamics (Kindersley, SK) and thermodynamics (Alliance, NE). Where will it be? Only time will tell. I have a hunch, though, that we may need our passports.

And now, the last forecasts I'll be posting on here until the trip starts.

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Kindersley, SK (D) or Alliance, NE (T)
GEM: Wynyard, SK
ECMWF: Coronation, AB
NOGAPS: Kindersley, SK

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Swift Current, SK (D) or Rapid City, SD (T)
GEM: Dauphin, MB or Rapid City, SD
ECMWF: Moose Jaw, SK
NOGAPS: Estevan, SK

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Pierre, SD
GEM: Red Deer, AB
ECMWF: Estevan, SK
NOGAPS: Bismarck, ND

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Omaha, NE
GEM: Kindersley, SK
ECMWF: Lethbridge, AB
NOGAPS: Fargo, ND (?)

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Rapid City, SD
GEM: Assiniboia, SK

Seriously. All. Over. The. Place.

24/00Z run

2009-06-24T09:33:00.001-05:00

For the last 2 days of the forecast, I'll be adding in other models as they become available. Today I add the NOGAPS.

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Red Deer, AB
GEM: Medicine Hat, AB
ECMWF: Coronation, AB
NOGAPS: Lloydminster, AB

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Nowhere
GEM: Medicine Hat, AB
ECMWF: Medicine Hat, AB
NOGAPS: Williston, ND

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Medicine Hat, AB
GEM: Melita, MB
ECMWF: Swift Current, SK
NOGAPS: Williston, ND

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Esther, AB
GEM: Nowhere
ECMWF: Yorkton, SK

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Lethbridge, AB
GEM: Williston, ND
ECMWF: Nowhere

On a side note, Friday looks pretty good around here. I'll be working but I'm sure some of the former students will be out, lurking for storms.

June 22, 2009 chase: southern ND

2009-06-23T14:46:00.006-05:00

Our initial target was west of Fargo, ND. All the ingredients were there for supercells, but the 850 mb winds were on the weak side; this told us that tornadoes were a lot less likely.

We got to Fargo and storms were going on a couple of hours west, and there was also a line of agitated cumuli around Jamestown. The towers were trying to go up near JMS, but it seems they were struggling with the shear. They leaned over in a big way. So we decided to target some of the storms to our west, all while keeping an eye behind us in case storms should go up there in the better moisture.

Well, the towers near JMS never did anything, but the storms west did. There was a north to south scattered line of discrete supercells going on, and it was just a matter of picking the right one. The one we initially targeted got choked off by one attacking it from the southwest, but there was one farther south along the line that was moving well to the right of the motion of the others. (Baron Mobile ThreatNet, while not very high resolution, helped us tremendously in this regard.) We got to a good vantage position on it and observed a good hard set of towers going up on it, with some ragged organization at the updraft base.

The storm was clearly having troubles keeping the outflow from cutting off the inflow, but for a while it seemed to strike that delicate balance where the rain-moistened air was being re-ingested into the storm and causing more structural beauty. It was looking like an almost small HP supercell at this point; we were not surprised at this point to hear a tornado warning for the storm. This was the most organized it got.

Soon after, the outflow won. It showed us a nice outflow tail attached to the storm.

And soon after that, it was gone.

All in all, a great day with beautiful structure.

23/00Z run

2009-06-23T14:28:00.002-05:00

It's way later (over 12 hours) than when I've been posting it, but I was chasing and got in late last night (early this morning, and pictures to follow in a blog post) and I haven't gotten around to it till now.

By the way, the last of these forecasts as such will be Thursday; as we get closer to the date (namely Friday and Saturday) we're going to ask the students to submit their forecasts based on the available information.

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Bowman, ND (heehee)
GEM: Swift Current, SK
ECMWF: Lethbridge, AB

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Fort Morgan, CO (wow)
GEM: Swift Current, SK
ECMWF: Lethbridge, AB

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Fort Morgan, CO
GEM: Lethbridge, AB
ECMWF: Lethbridge, AB

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Casper, WY
GEM: Swift Current, SK
ECMWF: Coronation, AB

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Alliance, NE
GEM: Not really anywhere
ECMWF: Pincher Creek, AB

Wow, it's a good thing that forecast models have no shame; otherwise, they'd be so embarrassed about a) their flip-flopping and b) their lack of inter-model agreement. Even 5 days out the agreement is truly awful. What this tells me, then, is that there are things out in the Pacific that the models have a poor handle on. But what heartens me (touch wood) is that none of the models is painting a death ridge anywhere.

22/00Z run

2009-06-22T00:38:00.007-05:00

Note: I will post the ECMWF-derived forecasts in the morning, as I have to get up at a reasonable hour and can't afford to wait for it.

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Minot, ND
GEM: Kindersley, SK
ECMWF: Medicine Hat, AB

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Dickinson, ND
GEM: Calgary, AB
ECMWF: Swift Current, SK

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Bismarck, ND
GEM: Red Deer, AB
ECMWF: Nowhere

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Nowhere
GEM: Saskatoon, SK
ECMWF: Resetting for the next day, likely in Alberta

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Nowhere?

This looks a little weird, the GFS. It's moving the trough through the flow rather quickly; troughs actually tend to stick around for a lot longer than the models depict. As well, the forecast here, if it comes true, is for severe thunderstorms of the rotating variety. Every day seems to have some pretty wicked CAPE--it's just a matter of whether it's collocated with the midlevel flow.

21/00Z run

2009-06-20T23:42:00.009-05:00

Edit: Wxdog informed me that the ECMWF run is available to us for this forecast; I will include it from here on in, and amend this run's forecast to include it.

Wxdog sent me this panel from the 20/12Z run of the GFS, and entitled the email "You know you're chasing with the U of M when..."

The panel shows the forecast CAPE for our first day out chasing. I will still remind everyone, of course, that the model will flip-flop lots of times before it reaches anything close to reality.

Now, onto the forecast.

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Lloydminster, AB
GEM: Nowhere (death ridge)
ECMWF: North Battleford, SK

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Moose Jaw, SK
GEM: Nowhere (death ridge)

ECMWF: Broadview, SK
Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Baker, MT
GEM: Nowhere (death ridge)
ECMWF: Nowhere (atmosphere reloading, appears to be getting ready for another Alberta day)

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Grand Forks, ND

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Nowhere

20/00Z run

2009-06-19T23:54:00.011-05:00

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Coronation, AB
GEM: Red Deer, AB

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Coronation, AB
GEM: Coronation, AB

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Brandon, MB

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Dickinson, ND

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Calgary, AB

This is really changing like crazy! For example, the day 1 GFS solution has had as a "target" Calgary (twice), Saskatoon (twice), Banff and Coronation.

Wanna really see how much model forecasts change, especially in the long range? Check out this 250 mb panel comparison (from CoD); both panels are valid for the same time (29/00Z) but are from runs 12 hours apart. Note the location and orientation of the jet stream west of Vancouver Island in each panel. 'Nuff said.

On a side note, it looks like I will be going out for a chase with JH on Monday and Tuesday. Here's what Monday's forecast sounding looks like (courtesy wxcaster.com).

19/00Z run

2009-06-18T23:48:00.004-05:00

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Banff, AB (marginal)
GEM: Rocky Mountain House, AB

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Lloydminster, AB

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Lloydminster, AB

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Estevan, SK

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Regina, SK

Keep in mind these targets will likely change every day. Our first day could end up being in Nebraska, for all I know.

18/00Z run

2009-06-18T00:07:00.003-05:00

Here I go:

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Calgary, AB (marginal)

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Edmonton, AB

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Estevan, SK

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Melita, MB

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Pierre, SD

Wow, what a change!

Third day of forecasts, and the final day added to the forecast period

2009-06-17T01:15:00.002-05:00

Here's the outlook for the 17/00Z runs, and it shocks me that the first 3 days have similar forecasts to yesterday's run:

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Saskatoon, SK

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Winnipeg (marginal) but nowhere, really

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Jordan, MT

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Winnipeg, MB

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Fargo, ND

I find it interesting that the model didn't change much in the super long range, in terms of locations, for the first 3 days of the forecast. That isn't to say, however, that it's got the same kind of setup for each day forecast; it doesn't.

Wow, this post was late. There was a likely severe thunderstorm west of The Battlefords, SK with large hail. I say likely because as of this writing, no reports of large hail have been received. It's also interesting that this storm has almost no deep shear to work with. It fired on the northeast end of a pretty strong vorticity centre, though, so maybe it ingested some of that vorticity and that's what made it last so long (and likely rotate).

Second day of forecasts, another day added to the forecast period

2009-06-16T00:18:00.002-05:00

Here's the outlook for the 16/00Z runs:

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Saskatoon, SK

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Winnipeg (marginal) but nowhere, really

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Jordan, MT

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Havre, MT

Already there have been some wild swings. Expect that to happen pretty much with every run and really, the locations won't likely sharpen up and remain consistent until we're about 5 days out, and really we should have a good idea of the approximate target for the first day by June 26.

Storm chase trip 2009: anticipation

2009-06-14T23:45:00.003-05:00

This year, in addition to all the funky gadgets we already have, we will have a new toy (okay, tool) to play with on the trip: Mobile Threat Net. It's essentially near real-time RADAR (both Canadian and American) delivered by XM satellite radio. Justin Hobson (the technology guy on this year's trip and possibly more of a weather geek than I am) and I took it out for a test run a couple of weeks ago and, while not perfect in what it delivers, what it does provide was given admirably.

We also have (from past years) an airmar, GMRS radios, door magnets for the vehicles, and some other neat stuff.

Personally this trip will mean a lot to me because I haven't seen a tornado since Elie and Oakville of 2007 (yes, at the same time) but also because I had 10 days to chase at the end of this past May and it turned out to be one of the convectively quietest Mays in North America since severe weather records have been taken.

My statement above shouldn't mislead you, though: I have realized over the past couple of years that my main goal in storm chasing is to see and document the structure of thunderstorms. I love seeing the striations in a storm indicating the organization in it; I love seeing tilted, hard towers rocketing up into the sky. That's not to say, however, that my ultimate goal isn't to see a tornado--it is, but it's more like icing on the cake. Sweet, sweet icing.

Now onto what I'll likely be blogging about for most of the next 2 weeks, hopefully every day: what the models are saying and how this year might play out. The "targets" should change with each successive run. I will start off with the disclaimer that what I will provide is more or less the subjective assessment by one meteorologist (me) of what the various models, as they become available for such assessment, are saying. I will not attempt to analyze how the models have been initialized or how they've been performing lately. I will also not try to include logistics/feasibility of getting to a target on any day. In the long range, using the models at all is a fool's game; consider me, therefore, a fool.

Numerous things can royally mess up how models fare in their solutions, including convection occurring at initialization time (very common) and tropical systems (none so far and, touch wood, we won't have any this year). And that's only naming two things.

As we all know, we've had to wait for warm weather to arrive, and that has affected how the severe weather season has been going; in a nutshell, the severe weather season has been delayed by about 3 weeks, so when we set out there's a good possibility we could be going out in the peak season for areas like Nebraska and South Dakota. Of course, every year is different so my previous sentence may mean exactly zero.

All that said, here's the outlook for the 15/00Z runs:

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Calgary to Edson, AB

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Regina, SK

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Regina, SK (again)

And that's as far as any of the models that are accessible to me go out; more will be added as they become available.

I hope you join me on this journey into the folly of models and wishcasting, as well as follow us on the trip (if you won't actually be in the vehicles with us).

Derecho in progress

2009-06-12T16:47:00.006-05:00

A derecho is currently going through the Unites States. It started this morning in northern Oklahoma and, as I write this, is going through northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.

The SPC issued a PDS severe thunderstorm watch (link will be invalid after 2009) for this--a rather rare event. In the wording of the watch they mention winds to 105 mph.

If you go to the SPC severe weather reports page for today, you can clearly see the swath of severe weather caused by this derecho.

Here's a current base reflectivity image of the derecho (courtesy CoD).

And the associated base velocity image.

This storm will, I'm sure, be the subject of many studies in the future.

June 6, 2009

2009-06-06T17:30:00.002-05:00

A former student of the storm chase course, Justin Hobson, is in Nebraska City, NE right now waiting for initiation. Things look pretty good out that way--and had I not had prior commitments that I couldn't get out of, I would have been there with him.

I'm glad to see former students (and future meteorologists) taking such an interest in our own "sport". It makes me think that a) we're doing something right and b) there's hope out there.

22 days until we start the trip this year. I can hardly wait. The group is a good one, and I think we'll all enjoy one another's company.

Chase course 2009, class 1

2009-05-04T23:00:00.000-05:00

It's another keen group this year, with 18 students starting out and hopefully all 18 sticking around till the end.

It's a diverse group, with people taking it for credit and not, meteorology students and not. Unfortunately I won't be able to be around for each class, but when I can I will be there.

This is gonna be fun.

Chasing vicariously

2009-04-24T19:33:00.002-05:00

I can't go chasing right now--time constraints because of work and a social life.

But the next week looks pretty good for chasing, so I'd ask you to a) forecast for your own virtual chase, and b) follow along with COD's blog and their GPS locator.

Another chance?

2009-03-15T12:58:00.002-05:00

The models are starting to do something interesting for next weekend.

Essentially, not a Colorado low but a Montana low is forecast to hit us. And if the models are right, hit us it will.

The current deterministic GFS has the snow starting on the 22nd, peaking on the 23rd and ending on the 24th. All told, it's right now forecasting a foot (30 cm) of snow. (For the record the GEM-Global brings in a lot more warm air with this system and makes it all rain.)

We shall see but I'll definitely keep my eye on this one!

Colorado low, probably not.

2009-03-08T12:05:00.001-05:00

It's now looking a lot less likely that we'll get the worst of it here in southern Manitoba, although the southeast could still get it. As well, anyone travelling to northwestern Ontario ... well, I'd just say don't.

Colorado low early next week?

2009-03-07T11:30:00.003-06:00

The models are doing their thing right now, showing a pretty potent Colorado low aiming for somewhere in the northern plains on Monday/Tuesday. Often what happens is the models start out painting the low ending up over Wisconsin, and then move it farther and farther westward until getting it right, usually about 36 to 48 hours out. And often this means that a Colorado low that was originally pegged for Minnesota instead smokes southern Manitoba.

As of this writing the most interesting timeframe for this system is 84 hours--Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is still significant disagreement on the placement, with the GEM-Global placing the low at Duluth and burying Sprague, the GFS placing the centre east of Minneapolis and thus burying Duluth, and the NAM placing the low northwest of Duluth, burying Sprague and Steinbach.

This one has my spidey-sense tingling. Not good for flood potential.

Cold, be gone!

2009-01-24T13:50:00.002-06:00

So I endured the cold, including a -51 wind chill, a while back. Then it warmed up. Just as I was about to leave for a week. For a place that was almost as cold as it had been in Winnipeg.

I came back yesterday. Just in time for the fresh blast of cold air.

Sigh. Can't a guy get a break? Winter, will you please release your icy grip on Winnipeg?

Clipper season

2008-11-17T12:16:00.002-06:00

November is upon us and, in southern Manitoba, that means clipper season. The main frontal zone sits, as it tends to do this time of year, from northwest to southeast across the prairies. Any little upper impulses that ripple along the front tend to be fairly dry, but 2 to 5 cm of snow is a good bet with any of them.

Add in the fact that parts of the lakes are still ice-free, sprinkle with some cold air moving over them, and even without the frontal zone you can get cloud and flurries in the lee of the lakes.

I suppose it's better than the -30s we'll inevitably see later this winter.

Summer?

2008-10-06T15:56:00.004-05:00

I haven't been blogging here for a long time. Aside from a busy personal life, frankly, there has been little in the way of significant weather to talk about.

This summer was punctuated by its conspicuous lack of big weather events, especially in southern Manitoba. Sure, there were tornadoes and hailstorms, but nothing like this or this or this.

We worked on project UNSTABLE during July, accounting for no storm chase course this past summer. (Don't worry; it's coming back this year!) There were some successful chases by the U of M weather club (3 tornadoes in Kansas) and some busts.

We're into October now, and aside from being near-normal for soil moisture, there's not too much to mention. Winter's coming, not normally my favourite season (although one that's often accompanied by severe weather) and it'll be a long time until I can get rid of my already-crushing SDS.

I guess I look forward to snowstorms and other non-bone-chilling winter weather. (I absolutely loathe the cold.) Maybe I'll write more about that stuff.

Soap tells all?

2008-07-06T00:57:00.003-05:00

I came back from a storm chase this evening (southern Manitoba, and we got some good towers, okay structure and that's about it, and if I remember I may post some pictures), went into the bathroom and there was liquid soap all over the counter. It had come out of the dispenser spontaneously.

What, I thought, would cause that to happen?

Well, I thought about it and realized that a) the approach of a surface trough would decrease the downward pressure on the soap, and b) the moisture in the air (this was by far the most humid day thus far this year) would cause the air inside my house (and thus, inside the soap dispenser) to be more buoyant, causing it to rise. Thirdly, and sort of related to the first 2 things, is that there was an upper-level short-wave trough approaching. Because of some mathematically-explainable stuff, ahead of the trough axis, the air in the entire column was rising, lessening (again) the downward pressure on the soap.

The things we nerds think about.

Thursday, June 12, 2008: central Kansas

2008-06-15T18:15:00.009-05:00

We started the morning in Omaha, and I had a message from Jen, the Free Press reporter from our 2006 trip. On our way south, I called her back and did a brief interview with her about this year's chasing and the previous night's tornadoes (which had sadly killed 4).

Anyhow, our thought was that we would stop in Topeka, KS for lunch and a data stop. We did that (lunch was, for me, an awesome sub and for CB a wrap from Jersey Mike's) and determined that our destination would be near Wichita.

Now, on the way, CB kept on looking at the city of El Dorado, west of Wichita, and singing "El Doradoooooo", trying to sing to the tune of Canyonero, the Simpsons SUV. Anyhow, after a while we both took it as a sign that, instead of Wichita, we should head to El Dorado.

We got to the toll booth at the turnoff from the turnpike when who should call, but Paul Sirvatka. He asked where we were and after about a minute of perusing data (he was actually already in the CoD lab), he stated confidently that we were in the right place.

Sweet.

We went into town and pulled up to the side of a Best Western. As soon as we puled in, a RADAR on the flatbed of a truck pulled in. It had University of Maryland painted on it.

We checked tonnes of data and decided that Paul was right. There was a northeast-southwest convergence line or stalled front just north of us; where we were there was a south breeze, temperatures in the low 30s and dewpoints in the low 20s. It was juicy.

We went to get some snacks and drinks, as we knew that we wouldn't be eating for quite a while. While waiting for CB I talked to a couple of the guys with the RADAR.

We left town and went just a little bit north, in order to watch the goings-on at the convergence line. This is an example of the towers that were going up and quickly fuzzing out on us.

So we waited and waited, although not for too long; soon enough one of the towers went higher than the other and was much MUCH broader than the others. It was seriously ingesting the good air.

We decided that we needed to go after this storm, which we did. As we approached it, the weatheradio went off. Tornado warning, Doppler-based, for this storm. SWEET!

So we caught up to it and saw a lazily-rotating wall cloud. And we kept on it. And on it. And on it. At one point, I can say, I was puzzled as to why it wasn't producing. To wit:

And then:

Shortly after this picture we passed by lots of other chasers, like cloud 9 and Roger Edwards. I really wish we could have stopped to talk to him, but we were in chase mode.

Wxdog called, asking us where we were. He told us that the storm we were on was one of 2 really good ones, based on RADAR. Again, of course, we were chasing blind (although I'll say a bit more about this later). Big hook, he said.

Anyhow, this storm hit the mess of construction that is the Turnpike interchange near Emporia, so our road options were all of a sudden cut off. D'oh!

We went into Emporia to get a data feed, and the RADAR shot made my jaw drop.

We couldn't catch the storm we had been on, but that was okay--I mean, just look at the hook on the storm south and west of Emporia.

We blasted south and this is what we got:

It was weakly rotating, but the heavy precipitation (yes, more HP supercells) was obscuring the wall cloud. This one went east and the precipitation from the next one caught us, so we dropped south. Saw the same thing there. It was starting to get dark and the storms were looking very HP, so I suggested we get a room in Emporia. Just after I said that, the weatheradio buzzed again. Tornado warning, for the storm just southwest of us. Okay, well, apparently I can't really call them properly. :P

We caught that storm and it was dark and impossible to take pictures; there was lots of neat outflowy stuff and maybe a wall cloud, but the storm wasn't going to produce.

We drove back to Emporia in the pouring rain, and CB got us a discount on the room. And I quote, "because she's awesome". I'm serious.

So that was the end of our 2-day central and southern plains chase.

I want to muse on why the storms didn't produce tornadoes that we saw; there were a few reports that afternoon, but way fewer than there would have been, due to the fact that just about every chaser on the planet was there.

I think, after much rumination, that the lack of low-level shear (something we knew would happen; in fact, I hadnèt even expected such awesome supercells) was the main limiting factor to the storms. The low-level shear wasn't enough to keep the outflow or HP cores of the storms from disrupting the inflow for long enough for tornadoes to happen. That's my opinion, anyhow.

The only other thing I can think of about this trip right now is this: I don't want to chase the USA without in-car RADAR. Although we hit the exact right spots (in my opinion) by going visual, I would like to have had the extra assurance of the RADAR imagery to confirm that we were on the right storms. There is a bit of a debate going on at Stormtrack right now, though, that maybe in-car RADAR might not be the best thing, as it creates complacency that you can get closer to the storm without being in danger. Of course, this is leading to some problems because the RADAR imagery is usually at least 5 minutes old, and if the update doesn't happen as expected and you don't recognize it, you could be in danger. If you're not looking out the window, which is apparently what has been happening from time to time.

Rant off.

It was a great chase. Thanks to Wxdog for capturing some information and for some nowcasting suport; to JJH for the same, and to CB for being a good chase partner, even though the music on my iPod might not be to your liking.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008: northwest Iowa

2008-06-15T17:47:00.008-05:00

So Miss Shannon Cool Beans (CB) and I left at about 8:30 AM to go chasing on Wednesday morning. I had just gotten off night shift, so I was a touch tired. Despite that, I didn't sleep much in the car--maybe an hour or so after Fargo.

Anyhow, we got to Sioux Falls, SD just before 4:00 PM, and coincidentally JJH called us to ask where we were. We told him and he said that we were in a good spot, as initiation was occurring just west of us, and that we should be able to see it. As we had been clagged in with cloud since about Fargo (along with some brutal near-zero visibility fog north of Watertown), we weren't looking hard enough. But then we opened our eyes and could see, just off to our west, a line of darker cloud bases embedded
within the cloud deck. We did a data stop and saw that we were, indeed, in just about the right spot. So we went east by about 10 miles, where we were much better able to see things off to our west.

Towers were going up but they were kinda fuzzy--indication that the instability wasn't yet being realized well enough to complement the shear.

Well, we kept on going east, trying to stay ahead of the line and trying to see if one storm would take over. It was hard to be sure, but one off to our southwest looked pretty good. We headed in that direction and soon heard the first tornado warning of the day on the weatheradio. We extrapolated its future location (seeing as how we were chasing as luddites, that is without mobile internet), and got in place. When we got there, we could see an area of rotation, but it was hard to pick out because the storm had started to rain pretty heavily. Still, this is what we could see:

Well, after that it got ugly. The line of storms had grown, evolving into a north-south line of HP supercells. Some tornadic circulations were in there, but it was mostly heavy rain. Here's an example of what the RADAR looked like.

The rest of the chase was done "visually", although I use that term loosely. What we could mostly see was a lot of rain. At one point we were in the middle of a tornado warning, where the town we were in (Primghar) was named. It got windy and the rain got even heavier, and I got scared. Turns out I was right to be scared, as some other chasers got a direct hit from a tornado that evening that they couldn't even see. Scary.

Iowa is flooded. Well, at least the part of it we saw. I didn't take any pictures of all the standing water, but I did take a picture of what the rain was doing in Primghar.

We got some pictures of another developing storm, but we were pretty much done for the day; a line of embedded HP supercells is not something I think I want to chase, ever again. Too scary, as you can't see anything.

We overnighted in Omaha. A town where you can't get anything to eat aside from Taco Bell at 1 AM. Unless you go to the casino. Yikes.

Back from the trip

2008-06-15T08:48:00.001-05:00

I'm still recovering physically, but I'll have a full recap with pictures and RADAR captures later today.

First long-distance chase of the year

2008-06-10T21:57:00.006-05:00

In the morning, SM and I will be taking off for (hopefully) Omaha. I've been watching this setup for a couple of days and it looks pretty awesome. I think the outbreak region will be bimodal, with one area up by Aberdeen, SD, and another down by Omaha. The better moisture and instability, as well as the better dynamics will be in Nebraska.

Then the next day, it looks like southeast Kansas, before coming back home the next day.

SM and I missed the last outing that JJH, JDS and DD hit, so this is our vengeance, as they can't make it.

On another note, my last forecast for June 4 seems to have worked out.

Let's hope this one works out, too.

Convective outlook for June 4, 2008

2008-06-02T22:25:00.002-05:00

I know how I've talked about not relying on the models too much, and I try to practice that all the time. However, in the 24 to 72 hour forecast period, one must rely on model output.

Well.

This is now the second consecutive day where the models have been pointing to a pretty serious central plains setup for Wednesday. Specifically, near the Kansas-Nebraska border.

Moisture--well, dewpoints are already 20°C or higher.
Instability--with cooling moving in aloft, MLCAPEs look to be in the 2500 to 3000 j/kg range.
Lift--a warm front is slated to be draped across the region.
Shear--with a 50 knot 500 mb jet streak moving across the region, 0-6 km shears look to be 50 to 60 knots.

Additionals: a good upper jet (70 to 80 knots) is forecast to be nosing into the region.

If I could, I would be leaving tomorrow morning to go to chase the Nebraska/Kansas border. Now, I can't guarantee that tornadoes will occur, but I will say that very large hail is likely with this setup, as well as flash flooding. But if a storm can ride the warm front and ingest the lower LCLs and low-level shear, this setup could produce a prolific tornado producer. Here's a comparison: this setup looks to me a lot like this day.

We will see in a couple of days if I'm right. Or more correctly, how wrong I am.

Weird obs for May 27, 2008

2008-05-27T18:32:00.001-05:00

This time we go to China, where the recent earthquake may have contributed to this (although I have no proof).

Harbin:
ZYHB 271800Z 19008KT 3000 SA BKN026 14/10 Q0994 NOSIG=
Sand. Not blowing sand, but sand. Well, I guess it can't really be blowing sand if the wind is only 8 knots.

Changchun:
ZYCC 270300Z 28018KMH 240V310 0500 R24/1400N SS SCT020 16/08 Q0997 NOSIG=
The very rarely used METAR code for sandstorm.

Kansas, May 23, 2008

2008-05-24T04:29:00.002-05:00

Quite a few members of the U of M storm chase team were there today. (Well, now it's yesterday.)

Big day.

I'll invite the chasers to share their pictures over the next week or two, as well as a written summary of their stories.

Once I stop being green with envy, I'll be happy for them.

(Psst: it might take a while.)

Oh, fer cryin' out glayvin

2008-05-23T12:43:00.002-05:00

I'm in Vancouver right now because of my brother's graduation from UBC. I'm glad to be here.

But.

The timing could not have been much worse. There's a major league multi-day tornadic supercell outbreak happening in the central and southern plains states. Some of my friends are down there chasing, including some former students of the chase course and, of course, Paul and the gang.

I'm jealous. Crazy jealous.

Ah well, as wxdog always says, there'll always be more storms.

Whew.

2008-05-09T18:41:00.001-05:00

It ain't gonna happen.

I'm glad.

I just hope it rains soon. My lawn is so dry and I want to plant my garden.

More snow in May?

2008-05-07T22:27:00.000-05:00

It appears there might be a shot of snow on Friday night here in Winnipeg. The system that's currently giving lots of precipitation to western Alberta will slowly move eastward over the next couple of days. Whether it hits us or skirts souhward is still up for debate; the potential exists, though, for maybe 5 cm of snow here on Friday night.

Will winter ever end?

Lightning!

2008-05-07T21:46:00.004-05:00

As we enter into the summer severe weather season, it warms the cockles of my heart (who knew a heart had shellfish--although I know it can sometimes be selfish--heeheehee) to see that new personal lightning detection systems are coming online. The newest one (at least newest to me) is in Regina. (I have added the link to the Weather Central information page.)

I don't think I'll end up getting one, myself, in the near future, as there are 2 good ones in the Winnipeg area already--another one would just be redundant. However, it would be nice (hint hint) to see one in the Edmonton area, and perhaps detectors in the Edson and Fort McMurray region. Just saying.

I can foresee getting a personal weather station, however, for my backyard. I live fairly close to the one that's already there in Fort Richmond, but hey--in this case, the more the merrier!

Vostok, South Pole and Macapá

2008-05-07T02:20:00.019-05:00

I'm looking at observations from all over the place right now. A few interesting things come up.

First off, Vostok, on the Antarctic ice cap, is a stunning -65°C. And they're not the coldest!. At the Concordia station, operated by the Australians, it's a ridiculous -68.9°C. By comparison, the actual south pole is balmy. But I wouldn't want to experience it. It's -63.0°C. (All of these, by the way, are still way off the world record, set at Vostok, of -89.6°C.) The funny thing about the observations at the south pole is that the winds are always out of the north (heehee). To actually tell the wind direction, they have set up a local grid system. So the winds are expressed in degrees relative to that grid. So far as I know, it's the only observation site in the world that does that.

Here's a couple of obs:
NZSP 061150Z 08008KT 9999 FEW020 -59/ A2908 RMK ALL WNDS GRID=
NZSP 061750Z 09008KT 9999 FEW020 -60/ A2901 RMK ALL WNDS GRID=
NZSP 062350Z 08009KT 9999 FEW020 SCT060 -62/ A2894 RMK ALL WNDS GRID=

Following data from Wednesday May 07 2008

NZSP 070550Z 10005KT 9999 FEW020 SCT060 -63/ A2891 RMK ALL WNDS GRID=

On the other end of the spectrum is a place at the mouth of the Amazon River, 2 minutes north of the equator. It is currently sitting at 25°C. This isn't too interesting, to be sure. It's the Amazon in Brazil. But consider this: since meteorological records have been kept, Macapá has never experienced a temperature below 18°C!

Now, I'd be willing to bet that other places in the world experience much the same, if not warmer, but this place has intrigued me for a long time.

Ahem, it is May

2008-05-04T11:50:00.000-05:00

So it's May 4th. The day before Cinco De Mayo.

And what's happening? It's snowing in Winnipeg.

Fan-friggin-tastic.

Ugh.

At least CoD caught a tornado the other day. I'm happy for Paul and the gang. Just ... enough snow already!

First rumble of thunder, 2008

2008-04-21T11:34:00.002-05:00

I'm sitting at home, working on the upgraded WxCentral homepage, and at 11:34 AM, I heard a faint rumble of thunder.

It's from the same system that gave all the grief to AB and SK.

It's good to live in Manitoba.

Big storm this weekend in Saskatchewan?

2008-04-16T14:02:00.004-05:00

Model forecasts are seeming to converge on a monster storm to smoke southern Saskatchewan on Saturday and Sunday. Below I've got the 120 hour GEM Global imagery, showing a huge precipitation bull's eye (near 60 mm) in the Assiniboia region, and below that a surface temperature forecast, showing 0°C over the same area. If this comes true, weekend travel could be brutal in Saskatchewan.

For what it's worth, the GFS also shows a similar scenario, at least in the big picture; the details will shake out eventually.

Watch this one. It could be a doozy.

Not-so-super outbreak and possible first 30 degree temperature of the year

2008-04-13T13:19:00.004-05:00

First off, the super outbreak wasn't so super, after all. According to the SPC, there were 55 tornado reports from the 9th to the 11th. Hardly a super outbreak. 1 injury was sustained.

Second, the current forecast for southern Saskatchewan is for 28 degrees for Regina and areas south and a little bit west thereof. The most recent guidance suggests that even 30 is possible. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be 18°C. If so, it just might be.

Super outbreak 2?

2008-04-09T05:53:00.002-05:00

Some weather bloggers are all over the potential outbreak of severe weather today and tomorrow. One prominent blogger has even gone so far as to say that this will be a repeat of the super outbreak. Now, I don't know about that, but it does look like a pretty good setup.

Here's a snippet of the SPC's discussion for tomorrow, Thursday April 10.

   A MULTI-MODE SEVERE DAY IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN AND NEAR THE
  MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY
  MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX INTO
  ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MO/KS/NORTHERN AR. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND
  THE EAST-ADVANCING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AMIDST A DESTABILIZING
  BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PROGRESSIVELY WEAK CINH IN THE WARM
  SECTOR...SURFACE BASED QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS
  LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
  ARKLATEX/OZARKS/MID SOUTH REGION. WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT
  NORTHWARD FROM OK/AR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...RAPID
  DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
  NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/IL/IND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY
  STORMS...THE REALIZATION OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY/TIMING THEREOF
  IS SOMEWHAT MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS MO/IL/IND.
  HOWEVER...VERY STRONG KINEMATICS/FLOW FIELDS WILL LEAD TO A MARKED
  SEVERE RISK EVEN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE MATERIALIZES...I.E. 500-1000
  J/KG...IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. ASIDE FOR THE QUASI-DISCRETE
  DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR...EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN
  SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE LEADING-LINE
  ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
 
  OVERALL...VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID
  TROPOSPHERE...WITH 80-110 KT AT 500 MB AND 50-70 KT AT 850 MB...WILL
  FAVOR BOTH FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
  QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE ARKLATEX/MID
  SOUTH REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS.
  BOTH WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR LEWP EVOLUTIONS...A HIGH
  HELICITY ENVIRONMENT /WITH 250-450 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH IN MUCH OF THE
  MODERATE RISK AREA/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN
  APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG
  TRACKED. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
  LIKELY.
 
  AS DETAILS REGARDING EARLY DAY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE MODE BECOME
  BETTER RESOLVED WITH TIME...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK IS
  POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

Talking about the potential for a high risk this far out? They must be really concerned.

If you're out chasing or just living in the area, please be careful.