Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Third day of forecasts, and the final day added to the forecast period

Here's the outlook for the 17/00Z runs, and it shocks me that the first 3 days have similar forecasts to yesterday's run:

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Saskatoon, SK

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Winnipeg (marginal) but nowhere, really

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Jordan, MT

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Winnipeg, MB

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Fargo, ND

I find it interesting that the model didn't change much in the super long range, in terms of locations, for the first 3 days of the forecast. That isn't to say, however, that it's got the same kind of setup for each day forecast; it doesn't.

Wow, this post was late. There was a likely severe thunderstorm west of The Battlefords, SK with large hail. I say likely because as of this writing, no reports of large hail have been received. It's also interesting that this storm has almost no deep shear to work with. It fired on the northeast end of a pretty strong vorticity centre, though, so maybe it ingested some of that vorticity and that's what made it last so long (and likely rotate).


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