Thursday, July 07, 2005

countdown, july 7

here i'll start the long-range forecast of target areas for the 5 days of the chase.

it'll be mainly based on the gfs (also known as the goofus) model, but also influenced by the canadian gem global. i'll try to do this every day until the trip. i emphasize try. also keep in mind that this is all based on long-range models, which are notoriously fickle. especially right now, because hurricanes are notorious for contaminating forecast models.


july 14: saskatoon. pretty good directional shear. left exit of a 75 knot northwesterly upper jet.
july 15: red deer. not a great-looking day. but in that kind of pattern, if storms go anywhere, they'll go in alberta.
july 16: kindersley. again not a great setup, but it's one of those diffuse times. could be more interesting than it looks. or eastern nebraska.
july 17: edmonton. good setup for hailers that day. or northeastern kansas.
july 18: lloydminster. another good setup. or central nebraska.
july 19: estevan. or central north dakota.

i reiterate, this is mainly to show you the fickle nature of the models. tomorrow i'm willing to bet that a lot of these--maybe all of them--will be completely different.

and that's just fine with me.

i much prefer forecasting using real data.


At 10:16 PM, Blogger saskatoonscanner said...

give me a ring if you are in Saskatoon next Thursday. I should have the day off work so I will be ready for anything. BTW, where do you post your photos? I would like to add as many Canadian storm chaser links as possible on my site. Also, how was today for you? Did you survive? Looks pretty nasty on radar with I think 3 naders reported already...




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