Monday, June 02, 2008

Convective outlook for June 4, 2008

I know how I've talked about not relying on the models too much, and I try to practice that all the time. However, in the 24 to 72 hour forecast period, one must rely on model output.


This is now the second consecutive day where the models have been pointing to a pretty serious central plains setup for Wednesday. Specifically, near the Kansas-Nebraska border.

Moisture--well, dewpoints are already 20°C or higher.
Instability--with cooling moving in aloft, MLCAPEs look to be in the 2500 to 3000 j/kg range.
Lift--a warm front is slated to be draped across the region.
Shear--with a 50 knot 500 mb jet streak moving across the region, 0-6 km shears look to be 50 to 60 knots.

Additionals: a good upper jet (70 to 80 knots) is forecast to be nosing into the region.

If I could, I would be leaving tomorrow morning to go to chase the Nebraska/Kansas border. Now, I can't guarantee that tornadoes will occur, but I will say that very large hail is likely with this setup, as well as flash flooding. But if a storm can ride the warm front and ingest the lower LCLs and low-level shear, this setup could produce a prolific tornado producer. Here's a comparison: this setup looks to me a lot like this day.

We will see in a couple of days if I'm right. Or more correctly, how wrong I am.


At 5:39 AM, Anonymous wxman said...

Central Plains and Midwest has moderate risk for severe weather..Great spot for a chase..looking forward for updates of your chase..Be safe and Goodluck..


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