Another chance?

The models are starting to do something interesting for next weekend.

Essentially, not a Colorado low but a Montana low is forecast to hit us. And if the models are right, hit us it will.

The current deterministic GFS has the snow starting on the 22nd, peaking on the 23rd and ending on the 24th. All told, it's right now forecasting a foot (30 cm) of snow. (For the record the GEM-Global brings in a lot more warm air with this system and makes it all rain.)

We shall see but I'll definitely keep my eye on this one!

Colorado low, probably not.

It's now looking a lot less likely that we'll get the worst of it here in southern Manitoba, although the southeast could still get it. As well, anyone travelling to northwestern Ontario ... well, I'd just say don't.

Colorado low early next week?

The models are doing their thing right now, showing a pretty potent Colorado low aiming for somewhere in the northern plains on Monday/Tuesday. Often what happens is the models start out painting the low ending up over Wisconsin, and then move it farther and farther westward until getting it right, usually about 36 to 48 hours out. And often this means that a Colorado low that was originally pegged for Minnesota instead smokes southern Manitoba.

As of this writing the most interesting timeframe for this system is 84 hours--Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is still significant disagreement on the placement, with the GEM-Global placing the low at Duluth and burying Sprague, the GFS placing the centre east of Minneapolis and thus burying Duluth, and the NAM placing the low northwest of Duluth, burying Sprague and Steinbach.

This one has my spidey-sense tingling. Not good for flood potential.