Saturday, June 20, 2009

21/00Z run

Edit: Wxdog informed me that the ECMWF run is available to us for this forecast; I will include it from here on in, and amend this run's forecast to include it.

Wxdog sent me this panel from the 20/12Z run of the GFS, and entitled the email "You know you're chasing with the U of M when..."

The panel shows the forecast CAPE for our first day out chasing. I will still remind everyone, of course, that the model will flip-flop lots of times before it reaches anything close to reality.

Now, onto the forecast.

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Lloydminster, AB
GEM: Nowhere (death ridge)
ECMWF: North Battleford, SK

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Moose Jaw, SK
GEM: Nowhere (death ridge)

ECMWF: Broadview, SK
Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Baker, MT
GEM: Nowhere (death ridge)
ECMWF: Nowhere (atmosphere reloading, appears to be getting ready for another Alberta day)

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Grand Forks, ND

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Nowhere


At 2:44 PM, Blogger Brandon Brown said...

Two words that any storm enthusiast doesn't want to see or hear, ''Death Ridge!'' Dave, what do you look at for a 'hint' for severe weather so far out? Location of the jet stream?

All the best,


At 12:59 AM, Blogger Weather Central said...

I agree, those words aren't my favourites! But good thing that it seems to have been an outlier solution! (Touch wood)

What do I look at? Pretty much the 500 mb flow and progged surface or 850 mb winds. This time of year, instability should take care of itself in all the right places. Some models have a (crappy) forecast of instability, but at least it's something to look at.


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