okay, so i missed a day; july 11 forecasts

yeah, i missed a day. i went out chasing yesterday afternoon (caught a shelf cloud and that's about it) and for other various reasons, i didn't do the extended forecast. i'm sure you've pretty much got the picture by now, though, that long-range models are somewhat useless in terms of forecasting for chasing. regardless of that, i'm going to do this up till the day we leave.

july 14: fargo. most models are now pretty much converging on this area being a focus for that day. now i'm not saying it'll be definitely near there, but as we draw nearer and the models converge on a solution, i can be more confident in the forecast.
july 15: regina-moose jaw (gem) or southeast-central montana (gfs).
july 16: pilot mound-devils lake (gfs) or glasgow, mt (gem). boy, now they're really diverging.
july 17: maybe eastern nebraska (gfs) or a good setup near virden, mb (gem).
july 18: eastern kansas (gfs) or bismarck (gem).
july 19: nowhere (gfs) or pilot mound (gem).
july 20: both gem and gfs indicate nowhere.

it just goes to show the variability amongst the models and the changeability from run ro run.