winter? already?

the new run of the gem regional model is in and it looks pretty ugly for southern manitoba.

a strong surface low is forecast to develop in northeastern colorado with a warm front/surface trough extending northeastward through central minnesota. actually, most of that has already happened. a quasistationary front near minneapolis is giving near-severe thunderstorms to the area.

but then.

the whole complex is forecast, by the gem regional, to move northward. and all the while a high pressure complex in saskatchewan, stretching up to eastern nunavut is forecast to pour in cold air.

where shall the twain meet? well, according to the canadian model, they shall meet over southern manitoba on wednesday.

what kind of weather would happen? the forecast is for rain changing to freezing rain changing to snow for winnipeg. farther west, it's to be more snow and less rain. the snow/freezing rain/rain line is progged to be right over winnipeg.

the american nam model, by contrast, has all the precipitation happening in north dakota and minnesota.

so which one will win? i don't know, but wherever it is, the first major storm of the winter is just on the horizon.

i'm glad i have good tires on my car.