well well well

my pants appear to be on fire as i had promised to make another entry about (today's) potential. well, it tuned out to be not good enough. and too far west and north.

this evening, storms fired off near nipawin, sk. about 8 hour northwest of here. too far for a mediocre possibility.

tomorrow is another slight chance day. between here and grand forks. northwest flow. hmmmmm. these can be fun, especially if the moisture is there....

bust-ola; another? chance?

well, the setup i was talking about last time didn't pan out. at all.

good, because i didn't go! ;)

but this coming thursday looks pretty good. a lot of the parameters (remember your ingredients-based forecasting!) seem to be coming together between winnipeg and brandon.

now, this is, of course, still a model-based forecast. but a couple of days of moist advection and evapotranspiration (i'm single-handedly contributing huge amounts to this--i just put in a lawn) as well as a weak wave coming through, and bingo bango, it could be a rack 'n roll afternoon/evening in southern manitoba on thursday.

i'll give another update tomorrow...

can i or can't i?

it's all about timing tomorrow.

big things could be setting up, if the dewpoints hold. big storms in the red river valley between fargo and winnipeg. supercells. tornadic supercells, possibly.

but i have to teach at 7.

oh well, if i can't go out and be back in time, i can always virtually chase.

like wxdog says, there'll always be more storms.

by the way, college of dupage caught a funnel, but they're not sure about a tornado. they're going over their video to see for sure. tornado or no tornado, they had a good trip 3. :)

maybe?

i think,

i think,

i think that the college of dupage guys might have caught a tornado this afternoon. whatever they got, today must be classified as successful--they caught a nice supercell. at the very least.

i'll try to confirm later whether it was their sightings which prompted this:

WFUS53 KLBF 102104
TORLBF
NEC069-102130-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0006.060610T2102Z-060610T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
302 PM MDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN GARDEN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 330 PM MDT

* AT 255 PM MDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 20
 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANTIOCHN NEAR TRALNOR LAKE...OR ABOUT 21 MILES
 SOUTHEAST OF ALLIANCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  HERMAN LAKE BY 320 PM MDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4198 10265 4175 10266 4185 10208 4199 10208
      4199 10225

class 1, 2006

so this year's class looks to be a good one. keen, knowledgeable people. more streamlined classes. more organization.

to the newbies who are reading this blog for the first time: yes, i don't usually type using capitals. this isn't an official document, and i tend to type out in a stream-of-consciousness kind of way. it's not, like some have posited, that i'm trying to emulate e. e. cummings. i'm not that pretentious; i'm just lazy. hope it doesn't bother you too much. :)

maybe a chase this week?

well, things are finally starting to set up. moisture isn't huge, yet, but it's getting there. the nam and gem regional are forecasting upper teens surface dewpoints and even mid teens at 850 sneaking up into the red river valley.

sbcapes are forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 j/kg range and deep shears in the 40 knot range near grand forks on monday. perhaps a chase is in order so that i can shake off the rust.

and a repeat, a bit farther west, looks to be setting up for wednesday. bismarck, or thereabouts. if it all works out, i may see some good ones, finally.

according to my inside sources, the soil moisture is looking god for prairie storms this year. i hope so. because after the beginning of july, last year just sucked.

looks like i'll be teaching 2 of the classes--june 15 and 27. should be fun.