told you so

all i can say is i told you so.

wow. for once, i was right.

mark this day. ;)

here we go

the first bulletin for winnipeg for this system has now been issued. a winter storm watch.

WWCN11 CWWG 262339 
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA 
AT 5:39 PM CST SUNDAY 26 NOVEMBER 2006. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA... 

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR: 
=NEW= CITY OF WINNIPEG 
=NEW= STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER 
=NEW= DUGALD - BEAUSEJOUR - GRAND BEACH 
=NEW= SELKIRK - GIMLI - STONEWALL - WOODLANDS - ERIKSDALE 
=NEW= PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN 
=NEW= MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS 
=NEW= ARBORG - HECLA - FISHER RIVER - GYPSUMVILLE - ASHERN 
     BRANDON - CARBERRY - TREHERNE 
     KILLARNEY - PILOT MOUND - MANITOU 
     MELITA - BOISSEVAIN - TURTLE MOUNTAIN PROVINCIAL PARK 
     VIRDEN - SOURIS 
     MINNEDOSA - NEEPAWA - RUSSELL - RIDING MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK 
     STE. ROSE - MCCREARY - ALONSA - GLADSTONE 
     DAUPHIN - ROBLIN - WINNIPEGOSIS 
     SWAN RIVER - DUCK MOUNTAIN - PORCUPINE PROV. FOREST. 

     HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO 
     TUESDAY. 

     THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER WEATHER EXISTS OVER THESE 
     REGIONS. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
==DISCUSSION== 
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE 
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA LATE MONDAY. THE SNOW 
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON 
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT 
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 10 CM ARE EXPECTED. 

FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN UPDATED BULLETINS AS THE 
SPEED, TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER KNOWN. 

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS AN ALERT OF THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF 
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER. PERSONS IN OR NEAR THESE AREAS SHOULD BE 
PREPARED FOR DEVELOPING ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SHOULD LISTEN 
FOR UPDATED WATCHES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. 

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

colorado low update

as of this saturday afternoon, it still appears that a colorado low is going to smack southern manitoba on tuesday. exactly where still remains to be seen, but it looks like it could be pretty big.

darkness on the horizon

i know, as i showed before, using the models to forecast something 5 days out is a fool's game, especially with the details. but i had to share something the models (gem global, gfs) have been pointing to for the past 3 runs, and it's a pair of words that strikes fear into the hearts of manitobans:

colorado low.

as it looks right now, the models want to dig a fairly significant trough in the upper air pattern and make our upper flow over southern manitoba a juicy one--deep from the southwest. throw a wiggle into the upper flow and you induce cyclogenesis. mix in a little bit of near-freezing temperatures (this is november, after all--not january) along with plentiful moisture, and what does it give you?

a lot of snow and a good shot at some freezing rain.

now keep in mind that this is still 4 and a bit days off--thus, it could change dramatically.

but also, if it's right, southern manitoba could be digging out next tuesday.