darkness on the horizon

i know, as i showed before, using the models to forecast something 5 days out is a fool's game, especially with the details. but i had to share something the models (gem global, gfs) have been pointing to for the past 3 runs, and it's a pair of words that strikes fear into the hearts of manitobans:

colorado low.

as it looks right now, the models want to dig a fairly significant trough in the upper air pattern and make our upper flow over southern manitoba a juicy one--deep from the southwest. throw a wiggle into the upper flow and you induce cyclogenesis. mix in a little bit of near-freezing temperatures (this is november, after all--not january) along with plentiful moisture, and what does it give you?

a lot of snow and a good shot at some freezing rain.

now keep in mind that this is still 4 and a bit days off--thus, it could change dramatically.

but also, if it's right, southern manitoba could be digging out next tuesday.