A few things

Well, that was more of a bust than I'd care to admit. I guess the models were giving too much credence (and QPF) to latent heat release due to thunderstorms. Ah well, live and learn.

On a different note, Wxdog sent this along: The minute-by-minute station data from a station that was hit (directly, they say) on March 28, 2007. Note a) the peak wind gust of 127 mph. Note also the 9 mb pressure drop as the tornado passed.

Thirdly, I got sent a link to a successful storm chase on that same day. I just hope the tornado didn't hurt anybody.

Big storm coming

Mid-week this upcoming week, watch out.

The models are not in full agreement on the details, but they're consistent on the generalities: that there's a strong storm coming.

A surface low and assoiated fronta structure will influence the weather over the southern prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday. The net result will be an olio of wind, snow, freezing rain, rain, and even thunderdstorms.

Where and when the precipitation will start, where the rain/snow line will be, how strong the wind will be, and where thunderstorms will occur are all details to be ironed out. But as of the 12Z run of the GEM Global, the answers are, respectively, Estevan on Tuesday morning, the AB/SK border until Wednesday morning (at which time it's forecast to move east), 50g70 km/h, and all of southern Manitoba.

I haven't seen a storm on the horizon like this one in a long long time. Maybe the models are overdoing it. Or maybe, just maybe, they're onto something.

Thunder?

The GEM Global and the GFS are both giving us a potential for fun this weekend and again mid- to late next week: the chance for thunder.

Sunday's forecast high is 17 degrees (I don't know that it'll go that high, given the snowpack) and even if we don't reach it, what the forecast is telling us is that it's going to warm up significantly. The variation from one day to the next in the forecasts tells me that we're going to be close to a warm front. So if the warm front can set up in the right place (to our south), we may see some elevated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

You know me: I love thunderstorms. And to boot, after last summer's drought, my water bill and my lawn could sure use the rain.

Here's to thunderstorms! (clink)