First rumble of thunder, 2008

I'm sitting at home, working on the upgraded WxCentral homepage, and at 11:34 AM, I heard a faint rumble of thunder.

It's from the same system that gave all the grief to AB and SK.

It's good to live in Manitoba.

Big storm this weekend in Saskatchewan?

Model forecasts are seeming to converge on a monster storm to smoke southern Saskatchewan on Saturday and Sunday. Below I've got the 120 hour GEM Global imagery, showing a huge precipitation bull's eye (near 60 mm) in the Assiniboia region, and below that a surface temperature forecast, showing 0°C over the same area. If this comes true, weekend travel could be brutal in Saskatchewan.

For what it's worth, the GFS also shows a similar scenario, at least in the big picture; the details will shake out eventually.

Watch this one. It could be a doozy.

Not-so-super outbreak and possible first 30 degree temperature of the year

First off, the super outbreak wasn't so super, after all. According to the SPC, there were 55 tornado reports from the 9th to the 11th. Hardly a super outbreak. 1 injury was sustained.

Second, the current forecast for southern Saskatchewan is for 28 degrees for Regina and areas south and a little bit west thereof. The most recent guidance suggests that even 30 is possible. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be 18°C. If so, it just might be.

Super outbreak 2?

Some weather bloggers are all over the potential outbreak of severe weather today and tomorrow. One prominent blogger has even gone so far as to say that this will be a repeat of the super outbreak. Now, I don't know about that, but it does look like a pretty good setup.

Here's a snippet of the SPC's discussion for tomorrow, Thursday April 10.

   A MULTI-MODE SEVERE DAY IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN AND NEAR THE
  MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY
  MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX INTO
  ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MO/KS/NORTHERN AR. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND
  THE EAST-ADVANCING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AMIDST A DESTABILIZING
  BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PROGRESSIVELY WEAK CINH IN THE WARM
  SECTOR...SURFACE BASED QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS
  LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
  ARKLATEX/OZARKS/MID SOUTH REGION. WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT
  NORTHWARD FROM OK/AR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...RAPID
  DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
  NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/IL/IND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY
  STORMS...THE REALIZATION OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY/TIMING THEREOF
  IS SOMEWHAT MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS MO/IL/IND.
  HOWEVER...VERY STRONG KINEMATICS/FLOW FIELDS WILL LEAD TO A MARKED
  SEVERE RISK EVEN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE MATERIALIZES...I.E. 500-1000
  J/KG...IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. ASIDE FOR THE QUASI-DISCRETE
  DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR...EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN
  SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE LEADING-LINE
  ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
 
  OVERALL...VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID
  TROPOSPHERE...WITH 80-110 KT AT 500 MB AND 50-70 KT AT 850 MB...WILL
  FAVOR BOTH FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
  QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE ARKLATEX/MID
  SOUTH REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS.
  BOTH WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR LEWP EVOLUTIONS...A HIGH
  HELICITY ENVIRONMENT /WITH 250-450 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH IN MUCH OF THE
  MODERATE RISK AREA/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN
  APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG
  TRACKED. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
  LIKELY.
 
  AS DETAILS REGARDING EARLY DAY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE MODE BECOME
  BETTER RESOLVED WITH TIME...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK IS
  POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

Talking about the potential for a high risk this far out? They must be really concerned.

If you're out chasing or just living in the area, please be careful.