Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Super outbreak 2?

Some weather bloggers are all over the potential outbreak of severe weather today and tomorrow. One prominent blogger has even gone so far as to say that this will be a repeat of the super outbreak. Now, I don't know about that, but it does look like a pretty good setup.

Here's a snippet of the SPC's discussion for tomorrow, Thursday April 10.
   A MULTI-MODE SEVERE DAY IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN AND NEAR THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MO/KS/NORTHERN AR. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND
THE EAST-ADVANCING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...AMIDST A DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PROGRESSIVELY WEAK CINH IN THE WARM
SECTOR...SURFACE BASED QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX/OZARKS/MID SOUTH REGION. WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD FROM OK/AR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...RAPID
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/IL/IND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY
STORMS...THE REALIZATION OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY/TIMING THEREOF
IS SOMEWHAT MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS MO/IL/IND.
HOWEVER...VERY STRONG KINEMATICS/FLOW FIELDS WILL LEAD TO A MARKED
SEVERE RISK EVEN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE MATERIALIZES...I.E. 500-1000
J/KG...IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. ASIDE FOR THE QUASI-DISCRETE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR...EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN
SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE LEADING-LINE
ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

OVERALL...VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERE...WITH 80-110 KT AT 500 MB AND 50-70 KT AT 850 MB...WILL
FAVOR BOTH FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS AND THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE ARKLATEX/MID
SOUTH REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS.
BOTH WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR LEWP EVOLUTIONS...A HIGH
HELICITY ENVIRONMENT /WITH 250-450 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH IN MUCH OF THE
MODERATE RISK AREA/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG
TRACKED. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
LIKELY.

AS DETAILS REGARDING EARLY DAY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE MODE BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED WITH TIME...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK IS
POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

Talking about the potential for a high risk this far out? They must be really concerned.

If you're out chasing or just living in the area, please be careful.

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