Monday, June 22, 2009

22/00Z run

Note: I will post the ECMWF-derived forecasts in the morning, as I have to get up at a reasonable hour and can't afford to wait for it.

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Minot, ND
GEM: Kindersley, SK
ECMWF: Medicine Hat, AB

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Dickinson, ND
GEM: Calgary, AB
ECMWF: Swift Current, SK

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Bismarck, ND
GEM: Red Deer, AB
ECMWF: Nowhere

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Nowhere
GEM: Saskatoon, SK
ECMWF: Resetting for the next day, likely in Alberta

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Nowhere?

This looks a little weird, the GFS. It's moving the trough through the flow rather quickly; troughs actually tend to stick around for a lot longer than the models depict. As well, the forecast here, if it comes true, is for severe thunderstorms of the rotating variety. Every day seems to have some pretty wicked CAPE--it's just a matter of whether it's collocated with the midlevel flow.


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