Wednesday, June 08, 2005

a few days later

i know it's a little bit schadenfreude of me, but perusing the chaser forums online shows me that there were a lot of chasers in kansas who busted on saturday. so maybe it's not making me happy, but at least a little less disappointed--misery loves company.

on another note, there's a lot of buzz on the same forums about this coming weekend in the southern and central plains. spc has already issued a moderate risk for friday, and according to the gurus the entire weekend looks classic.

i have 2 problems with this.

first off, it's all a model forecast. i've come to distrust models immensely. for example, the current forecast for saturday, based on a model, says "periods of rain". yesterday's forecast for the same day, based on a prior run of the same model, said "sunny". there's more flip-flopping going on here than a pair of thong sandals.

second off, i worry now about high cape/high shear days. the storms move really quickly and if you don't get the proper backing of the winds, you could be chasing your own tail and busting along with 100 other chasers. or you could have a supercell bearing down on you at breakneck speed. the potentials for a bust chase or for a busted windshield are high.

all that being said, i will be watching things closely this weekend to see how it all plays out.

props to eze for capturing radar and satellite images from my bust chase day. i'll be posting them on weather central soon.


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