Tuesday, July 12, 2005

july 12 forecasts

well, it looks like, as the time comes closer and closer, the solutions are settling down. at least in the shorter term. one thing that seems fairly certain: we're in for a lot of hot weather. with the moisture in place all across the prairies, i'm cautiously optimistic.

july 14: fargo, nd.
july 15: moose jaw (gem), swift current (gfs), or medicine hat (nam-marginal day).
july 16: fargo, nd to mobridge, sd (gem--this solution looks odd to me, though) or pilot mound
july 17: maybe minneapolis. otherwise nowhere.
july 18: edmonton (gem) or kansas city (gfs).
july 19: lloydminster (gem) or west of red deer (gfs).
july 20: estevan (gem) or coronation, sk.

a couple of things: first, after about day 3 the models are still having difficulty. i imagine this is because of a) the remnants of dennis in the system, b) emily (who, they're forecasting, will likely become another major--that is, category 3, hurricane, and c) the fact that forecast models (especially the long-range ones) suck. second, don't be disappointed if we have a non-chase day. what we'd really like is what happened to wxdog and me in the summer of 2001--where the flow stayed pretty much stationary over the area and we didn't have to go very far each day. but if that doesn't happen, what we can expect to happen is that systems move through and pop storms one day in ab, the next in sk, then the next in mb; the next day being a travel day to catch the next wave coming in off the west coast into alberta.

whatever it turns out to be, it should be fun.

i forgot to mention--or maybe i did mention and i just can't remember that i mentioned it. at any rate, try to bring some compact diversions along. cards. hacky sack (which i'll try to find amidst the boxes of stuff in my house). frisbees. footballs. you know, stuff. if we hook up with cod they usually have a bat and a softball, and if there's some wait time, they'll go to a park and play a game of bat and catch. we'd join them. (i can't really call it a game of anything aside from bat and catch--last time i played with them, in kansas, one team kept going until the batting order was exhausted. i was one of the last people in the batting order and i was, i think, the 7th out.) (oh, and the ball they use is extremely soft--no need for a glove.)


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