Wednesday, July 13, 2005

last forecast blog before we leave: july 13 forecasts

we leave tomorrow. i'm ready. are you?

july 14: grand forks/fargo. this'll take an intensive analysis in the morning, though, because it appears the best shear (we know the instability will be there) might be north of the border.
july 15: sw sk/northern mt--but it looks marginal (nam) or saskatoon (gem) or swift current (gfs). this day might turn out to be better than it currently looks.
july 16: minot-regina (nam) or devils lake (gem, gfs).
july 17: if the pattern is a touch slower than currently shown, grand forks (gfs). otherwise nowhere (gem).
july 18: red deer-lloydminster (marginal) (gem, gfs).
july 19: swift current (gfs) or regina (gem).
july 20: swift current (big setup) (gfs) or glasgow, mt (gem)

we'll see. i'm willing to bet that one of my forecasts from the past couple of days will be right. ;)

what do i personally think we'll see? i think we'll see great storm structure. i think we'll see severe thunderstorms. i even think it's likely we'll see a supercell or multiple supercells. will we see a tornado? keep in mind that, although the number varies depending on whom you ask, but only a small percentage--somewhere in the 10% range--of supercells is thought to produce tornadoes.

so here's hoping we get that one in ten! :)


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