Monday, February 26, 2007

Reinforcement of cold by the weekend?

The forecast models are giving us another shot of cold weather by the end of the weekend, bringing March in (sort of) like a lion.

How long will the cold air last? Who knows. The GFS has the cold air entrenched until the end of its iteration (that means at least until mid-March), and the GEM global has the cold air being flushed out by midweek.

Also, the models tend to disagree on the coldness of the air. GEM global snaps us with a sharp cold front Sunday evening, while GFS (more) gradually cools us down on Monday morning. Highs forecast by GEM global look to be in the -25°C range, while GFS is more moderate, at -15°.

So we have 2 different scenarios, neither of which is likely to be exactly right. Worst case scenario: the GEM is right with the coldness of the air and the GFS is right with the duration of the cold snap. I just hope that doesn't come true. One big cold snap was plenty for this winter.


At 12:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Before the cold pattern builds in...there is a Colorado Low that will work thru the middle part of the continent. GEM and GFS were intially further north with the track of the storm. The European model still show a more northern track however.

If the European track verifies we could be in for a lot of what happened in Minnesota last weekend. Even with the GFS/GEM scenarios we are still in for a prolonged period of light snow.

If a very cold airmass moves south and interacts with a fresh and deep snowpack, we are in for some brutal temperatures again...but there will likely be large differences in temperatures between urban and forested areas and snow covered fields (airport) with the stronger sun.


At 11:20 AM, Blogger Weather Central said...

As my next entry points out, it appears that the models were being overly pessimistic with the cold.

That or they're being overly optimistic now.

Still looks like some snow here, though.


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