Virtual chase update

I looked though Stormtrack, as advertised, and it seems that most agree with me. Wichita or thereabouts, then eastward from there.

But a troubling indication to me, not about the meteorology of the situation but of the mindset of the chasers on that site (thought not all of them, by any stretch), is that they're all waiting for the next model run.

For those who haven't yet seen or heard my diatribe about this type of forecasting:

The atmosphere doesn't care what the models say! Look at real data and you can't go wrong!

Big day in the southern plains

Today's setup is an almost textbook setup for severe thunderstorms in the southern plains states.

Jet streak ejecting, dryline, backed winds, lots of low-level moisture, midlevel drying off the desert southwest, and the list goes on.

I'm in Winnipeg, but were I to pinpoint a target, I would play the area between Wichita, KS and Tulsa, OK. (I know, this isn't prime chase territory, but I'm thinking meteorologically right now--but when we're chasing for real we have to take that into account.)

Why do I like that area? Well, the entire region is primed for storms. Everywhere there are big parameters coming together. The difference is that the centre of the jet streak looks to be just south of there--placing ICT-TUL in the left exit region--enhanced lift and vorticity. I've found that playing the jet often leads to better storms.

Of course, the plains are going to be swarming with chasers today, each one in a different area based on his/her own thoughts of why a given target is better than another.

I'll stick to my guns but I'm also going to go peruse Stormtrack to see what the thoughts are.

For anyone out there chasing today: be safe.

Big snow up north

I know I've tended to focus on weather across the southern prairies and particularly around Winnipeg, but Rankin Inlet, NU--along the Hudson Bay coast--is getting buried.

I'm writing this at just after 1 PM, and since 5 PM yesterday they have received 37 cm of snow.

Here are the obs:

CYRT 212100Z 13013G18KT 12SM DRSN SCT020 OVC050 -4.6/-5.9 A2978 RMK SC4SC4 SLP087 56027 SKYXX=
CYRT 212200Z 14014G20KT 12SM -SN DRSN BKN020 OVC050 -4.4/-5.6 A2975 RMK SC5SC3 SLP077 SKYXX=
CYRT 212300Z 12013G19KT 12SM -SN DRSN BKN020 OVC050 -4.5/-5.5 A2972 RMK SC6SC2 SLP067 SKYXX=
CYRT 212317Z 12013G18KT 3/4SM -SN DRSN OVC015 RMK SN2SC6 SKYXX=

Following data from  Sunday April 22 2007

CYRT 220000Z 12014KT 3/4SM -SN DRSN OVC010 -4.8/-5.1 A2969 RMK SN2SC6 /S01/ SLP058 57029 SKYXX=
CYRT 220041Z 12014KT 3/8SM SN DRSN OVC010 RMK SN3SC5 SKYXX=
CYRT 220100Z 12013KT 3/8SM SN DRSN OVC010 -4.9/-5.1 A2967 RMK SN6SC2 /S02/ SLP050 SKYXX=
CYRT 220125Z 12011KT 1/2SM SN DRSN VV006 RMK SN8 SKYXX=
CYRT 220200Z 12011KT 3/8SM SN DRSN VV005 -5.0/-5.1 A2965 RMK SN8 /S04/ SLP042 SKYXX=
CYRT 220300Z 12008KT 1/2SM SN VV005 -4.9/-5.0 A2964 RMK SN8 /S06/ SLP038 57020 SKYXX=
CYRT 220400Z 12011KT 5/8SM -SN VV005 -5.0/-5.0 A2960 RESN RMK SN8 /S09/ SLP026 SKYXX=
CYRT 220500Z 12009KT 5/8SM -SN VV005 -5.0/-5.1 A2957 RMK SN8 /S12/ SLP017 SKYXX=
CYRT 220600Z 12012KT 1SM -SN VV009 -5.1/-5.3 A2955 RMK SN8 /S15/ SLP009 57029 SKYXX=
CYRT 220700Z 10012KT 3/4SM -SN VV007 -5.3/-5.3 A2952 RMK SN8 SLP000 SKYXX=
CYRT 220800Z 10011KT 3/4SM -SN VV007 -5.2/-5.4 A2950 RMK SN8 /S02/ SLP991 SKYXX=
CYRT 220840Z 10011KT 1SM -SN VV007 RMK SN8 SKYXX=
CYRT 220900Z 09010KT 1SM -SN VV007 -5.2/-5.4 A2948 RMK SN8 /S05/ SLP984 57025 SKYXX=
CYRT 221000Z 10011KT 3/4SM -SN VV007 -5.3/-5.4 A2946 RMK SN8 /S08/ SLP980 SKYXX=
CYRT 221100Z 10011KT 3/4SM -SN VV008 -5.4/-5.5 A2945 RMK SN8 /S09/ SLP977 SKYXX=
CYRT 221137Z 09010KT 1/2SM SN VV008 RMK SN8 SKYXX=
CYRT 221200Z 09010KT 1/2SM SN VV008 -5.3/-5.5 A2944 RMK SN8 /S10/ SN COV/MUCH LOOSE SLP971 57013 SKYXX=
CYRT 221242Z 09011KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC010 RESN RMK SN4SC4 SKYXX=
CYRT 221250Z 09012KT 1/2SM SN VV005 RMK SN8 SKYXX=
CYRT 221300Z 09012KT 3/8SM SN VV005 -5.3/-5.6 A2942 RMK SN8 /S01/ SLP966 SKYXX=
CYRT 221304Z 09011KT 1/2SM SN VV005 RMK SN8 SKYXX=
CYRT 221400Z 09014KT 1/2SM SN VV005 -5.2/-5.4 A2942 RMK SN8 /S02/ SLP964 SKYXX=
CYRT 221500Z 09011G16KT 1/2SM SN DRSN VV005 -5.1/-5.5 A2941 RMK SN8 /S06/ SLP962 56009 SKYXX=
CYRT 221600Z 08012G17KT 3/8SM SN DRSN VV005 -5.1/-5.5 A2941 RMK SN8 /S08/ SLP963 SKYXX=
CYRT 221700Z 08013G19KT 3/8SM SN DRSN VV004 -5.1/-5.7 A2941 RMK SN8 /S09/ SLP962 SKYXX=
CYRT 221800Z CCA 08013KT 3/8SM SN DRSN VV004 -5.0/-5.7 A2942 RMK SN8 /S11/ SLP965 53003 SKYXX=

Wow.

Multispectral satellite imagery fixed

The imagery hadn't been working properly for about a year and a half, and we couldn't figure out why. We had brutalized the directory and nuked all the images. But when we uploaded them again, some old, old, old images were magically inserting themselves into the loop.

Yesterday, inspecting the script that does the renaming, I saw that there was a typo.

Essentially all the image files are renamed down one number, so whatever25.jpg is renamed whatever24.jpg and so on down the line, and the oldest one is dropped. Then the latest satellite image is uploaded to the site and named whatever25.jpg.

In the renaming routine, the command called for whatever(x),jpg to be renamed whatever(x-1).jpg. Note the comma. So it would never actually rename the older files, because the ones being called for didn't exist, because of the typo.

Anyhow, technical explanation, but I'm just so happy that we have the multispectral prairie imagery back.

Also, we're launching the UNSTABLE page, which outlines a project (hopefully) being undertaken in the summer of 2008.