Tuesday, June 23, 2009

23/00Z run

It's way later (over 12 hours) than when I've been posting it, but I was chasing and got in late last night (early this morning, and pictures to follow in a blog post) and I haven't gotten around to it till now.

By the way, the last of these forecasts as such will be Thursday; as we get closer to the date (namely Friday and Saturday) we're going to ask the students to submit their forecasts based on the available information.

Day 1 (June 28)
GFS: Bowman, ND (heehee)
GEM: Swift Current, SK
ECMWF: Lethbridge, AB

Day 2 (June 29)
GFS: Fort Morgan, CO (wow)
GEM: Swift Current, SK
ECMWF: Lethbridge, AB

Day 3 (June 30)
GFS: Fort Morgan, CO
GEM: Lethbridge, AB
ECMWF: Lethbridge, AB

Day 4 (July 1)
GFS: Casper, WY
GEM: Swift Current, SK
ECMWF: Coronation, AB

Day 5 (July 2)
GFS: Alliance, NE
GEM: Not really anywhere
ECMWF: Pincher Creek, AB

Wow, it's a good thing that forecast models have no shame; otherwise, they'd be so embarrassed about a) their flip-flopping and b) their lack of inter-model agreement. Even 5 days out the agreement is truly awful. What this tells me, then, is that there are things out in the Pacific that the models have a poor handle on. But what heartens me (touch wood) is that none of the models is painting a death ridge anywhere.


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