Saturday, May 13, 2006

season starting ... when?

the severe weather season has officially started. sort of.

last sunday (when i was out of town, naturally) a severe thunderstorm hit winnipeg with up to quarter-sized hail.

on thursday, a near-severe storm popped up east of edmonton. (i'll have the visible satellite imagery on weather central from that event sooner rather than later.)

but we're right now stuck in this blocky pattern that has a monster upper low over the great lakes, spinning cloud and precipitation toward us.

the good news is that it looks like this "meteorological constipation", as i like to call it, will be ex-laxed out of here soon enough. what that means is that the farmers will be able to finish seeding, the northward transport of moisture should begin in earnest, and severe storms are around the corner. indeed, the forecast for thursday (the analog, at least) has a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms in southern saskatchewan and highs in the mid to upper 20s.

speaking of warm temperatures, this analog forecast is also calling for 33 degrees in the west kootenay district of bc. that would be areas like castlegar and nelson.


on a totally different note, i keep getting asked about how the summer will turn out. will it be good for severe storms, will it be hot, will it be dry, will it be this or that? the answer is, i don't know. i don't have much experience at forecasting seasonally, nor do i have much skill. the official ec forecasts are out there, calling for a hot, dry summer. take that how you will. i personally won't say anything about it. what i will do, however, is a) just take whatever summer comes, and b) assume it won't be as dead after july 2 as is was last year.


on yet another note, the much-touted webmaster, eze, is in the office. he's currently learning more html, so it may be a few months yet before he's into prime time. until then, it'll be mainly yours truly doing the maintenance on the website. and i'm pretty busy these days, so the maintenance may be more sporadic than i'd like.

eze says hi. i'll see if he wants to join the blogging game on this--if he does, you'll soon see a post or two from him.


At 10:17 AM, Anonymous The Manitoba Storm Spotter said...

Those storms we got last Sunday were interesting. It felt like a summer day that day with temps in the upper 20's before the storms came. I remember seeing the development of TCU's and CB's over my house and I was hearing thunder in the distance. This was around 2:00 PM on Sunday. I went to check the weather, and a sever t-storm watch was issued for srn MB including wpg. By 3, the clouds were thickening and thunder and lightning were increasing in frequency. At this point, I knew we were in for something good. By 4, the storms had arrived. A line of storms moving from sw to ne was in full swing, mostly affecting the southern portions of the city. It was a pretty narrow line and the storms were fairly localized. I went up flying the next day and you can see where the rain was and wasn't. But an over all decent storm!

2 days later, another round of storms moved through srn MB and produced a tornado near the town of domain, MB. The city just got some heavy rain and thunder and lightning for no more than an hour around 1:30 in the afternoon. I'm surprised this storm did not get much mention in the weather community, considering it produced a tornado.

At 6:49 AM, Blogger Weather Central said...

yeah, i'm surprised too, although it could be because the tornado was almost certainly a landspout--doppler showec no rotation, and its radar presentation had no characteristics of a supercell.

At 1:30 PM, Anonymous The Manitoba Storm Spotter said...

So then a good question would be, does a storm have to be a supercell in order to produce a tornado? I would think not really. I don't think the storms that produced that tornado were anything near supercells.

At 10:55 PM, Blogger Weather Central said...

oh, definitely nonsupercell storms can produce tornadoes. they're just nonsupercell tornadoes--and as such, tend to be less destructive than their supercell cousins.

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