Saturday, July 08, 2006

storm chase 2006, forecast iteration 1

last year, i did a similar thing. i made long-range forecasts for the trip. this year, i will do the same, as much as i can, anyhow.

these forecasts are all model-based. the models i use primarily are the gfs and the gem global, although i also peek at the ecmwf long-ranger. note that the gem global i have access to only goes out to 240 hours; that's why the forecasts become single-model after a while.

the purpose of this is to show the variability of the day-to-day model runs, and to show that, he closer you get to the day of the forecast, the more accurate the model forecast is.

july 16: glasgow, mt (gem) or dickinson, nd (gfs)
july 17: dickinson, nd to coronation, ab (gem) or aberdeen, sd (gfs)
july 18: medicine hat, ab to swift current, sk (gfs)
july 19: swift current, sk (gfs)
july 20: dickinson, nd to medicine hat, ab (gfs)

whatever it turns out to be, whatever the details, i'll cautiously say that this looks promising. a southwesterly flow, plenty of moisture, and good (but not too good) surface features.


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