Saturday, July 14, 2007

Last pre-trip forecast: go west, young people

Well, the consensus seems to be west of Winnipeg. Good thing, too, because east is a bad choice for storm chasing territory. :P

July 15: Melita, MB (GEM), Melita, MB (NAM), Grand Forks, ND (GFS), Estevan, SK (NGM), Edmonton, AB (NOGAPS), Minot, ND (ECMWF) or Devil's Lake, ND (UKMET).
July 16: Bismark, ND/Val Marie, SK (GEM), Edmonton, AB (NAM), Coronation, AB (GFS), Vermilion, AB (NOGAPS), Lethbridge, AB (ECMWF) or Edmonton, AB (UKMET).
July 17: Missoula, MT (GEM), Havre, MT (GFS), Red Deer, AB (NOGAPS) or Lethbridge, AB (ECMWF).
July 18: Calgary, AB (GEM), Leader, SK (GFS), Medicine Hat, AB (NOGAPS) or repositioning (ECMWF).
July 19: Missoula, MT (GEM), Glacier, MT (GFS), Medicine Hat, AB (NOGAPS) or Havre, MT (ECMWF).

The models still seem to be in disagreement about the exact locations, but the patterns are more or less agreed upon--the upper ridge location will be west of Winnipeg.

The most difficult things we're going to have to deal with in terms of forecasting during this trip will be a) the strength of the cap and where it will break, b) where the shear will be best. We have moisture, and we will have instability. Lift will likely be provided orographically (except the first day, which likely looks like a ND/MB/SK day). The storms we get over Alberta will be photogenic; they always are. We may need to drop down into the USA, so bring appropriate papers.

See you tomorrow! We'll be contacting you today about when.


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