Forecasts for the trip!

So I'm back from a few weeks of on and off chasing, and ... well, I'll tell you the stories, but suffice to say that I'm still wanting to do tons more chasing this year.

In past years, I had some super-long-range forecasts based on the different models, as far out as 10 days in advance.  I won't be doing that this year (or, more properly put, I haven't done that this year), primarily because I was out on the road and super busy, but also because it always yields the same results.

If you want to see how it's turned out in the past, check out this link.

In a nutshell, though, Pat, John, Jay and I have been perusing the models for a week or more, and it's the same story: wild variation.

In fact, there's even some pretty big variation as to how Friday is going to turn out.

Which is where I'll begin.  I'll list the models that are available.

Friday:
NAM: central or SE SD
GFS: SE ND
ECMWF: NW SD or SW ND
GEM-GLB: NW SD or SW ND

Saturday:
GFS: SD
ECMWF: E WY or western SD/NE
GEM-GLB: SW MB

Sunday:
GFS: NC KS or S MB
ECMWF: reposition
GEM-GLB: reposition

Monday:
GFS: C SD
ECMWF: NW NE
GEM-GLB: E ND

Tuesday:
GFS: C ND
GEM-GLB: NC SD

Wednesday:
GFS: SK
GEM-GLB: reposition

So as it sits, it looks like we'll start off with a few pretty good chase days, then i becomes unclear what'll happen. Previous runs of the GFS had us in a storm chasers' flow for a week.  Perhaps that'll happen, perhaps not.

On a final note, I've got something in the works that should be up and running tomorrow or the next day, something that will add a real "cool" factor to the trip for your friends and family following along at home.  I'll announce it as soon as it's ready.