a tough experience

i admit it. i got suckered in.

yesterday the spc upgraded to a moderate risk over eastern nd and central mn. i took the bait and swallowed every bite, driving down to south of fargo.

moisture was huge, and thus so were capes. shear profiles were great, due to a jet impinging on the region and a good se low-level jet. the trigger was there in the form of a warm front.

but then there was the cap.

looking back at it, i should have forecast no surface-based storms south of about berens river.

so what was i doing?

wishcasting.

ignoring the cap. ignoring the fact that my analysis had 14 degrees at 700 mb advecting into the area.

and now i have egg on my face and 1000 km more on my car.

sigh. hope that'll teach me.