if onlys

1:33 pm day 3.

i know it's a fool's game, but sometimes you can't help but play the "if only" game.

wxdog and i just finished having a brief discussion about the supercell we saw yesterday and we agree that, had the dewpoints bee 5 to 7 degrees warmer, we would have seen more than we did. tornadoes would have been very likely.

likewise for the other day--the moisture was just not quite enough, it seemed. a little more and we would have been in business.

once again moisture seems to be the key today, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper teens in the target area--around the duck mountains. if they were in the low 20s, maybe we'd be looking at worse (better) storms than we are today.

the order of the day looks to be inverted-v profiles. that means high winds, primarily. but as always, if the dewpoints go a bit higher or we get supercells (which is possible given the shear) hail could be within the realm of possibilities as well.

for days 4 and 5 it looks fairly likely we'll be in the states. hope everyone brought their passports! :)