Storm chase forecast, issued Sunday June 14, 2015

So here goes.  I haven't yet looked at the guidance, so you (sort of) will be looking at it (or hearing about it) along with me.  I expect fewer changes in the nearer term, although I expect some, but in the longer term (i.e. toward the end of the trip) I expect there to be huge differences.

So let's get to it.

Day 1 (June 20):
GFS: Eastern NE/western IA
GEFS: SE SD
ECMWF: Western KS/Eastern CO
GDPS: Western NE/NE CO
CFSv2: OK/TX panhandles to SW KS

Day 2:
GFS: Eastern KS or SW SD
GEFS: Northern NE/SW SD
ECMWF: Eastern NM/SE CO
GDPS: Eastern CO/western KS
CFSv2: Eastern NM

Day 3:
GFS: NE
GEFS: SD
ECMWF: Southern AB to eastern MT
GDPS: Eastern CO/western KS
CFSv2: Eastern CO

Day 4:
GFS: NE CO to SE NE
GEFS: SE MT/Dakotas
ECMWF: The Dakotas, Nebraska and eastern WY (huge area)
GDPS: Western KS
CFSv2: Western NE/western SD

Day 5:
GFS: NE/IA
GEFS: Eastern Dakotas
CFSv2: Central NE to central ND

Day 6:
GFS: Eastern CO to eastern KS
GEFS: Dakotas
CFSv2: Central MT to southwest IA

Day 7:
GFS: SW SD to eastern NE
GEFS: Eastern Dakotas/NE
CFSv2: North-central MT or western SD to central IA

Some changes are pretty huge, and some show some run-to-run consistency.  What this exercise is already showing, I think, is that the consensus this far out is pretty poor.  Suffice to say, however, that we will likely be looking at ample instability over a good portion of the chaseable regions; it'll just be a matter of whether or not we can get flow overtop that.