Thursday, June 20, 2013

The last first-day forecast for U of M chase 2013

Very little has changed.  As a result, I won't post more images that are practically identical to the ones I posted before.

For tomorrow, there are two plays in there, one in southwest SD and one in southeast SD.  The NAM and the GFS don't quite agree; the former favours southeast and the latter, the southwest.  The 4 km WRF is blasting a huge MCS through southern Manitoba (including Winnipeg) and the Dakotas this evening, laying out an outflow boundary.  However, it only breaks out storms in western SD tomorrow evening.  This potential MCS and its boundary will be a thing to watch over the next day or so.

So that's it for forecasting day one.  It's a toss up, still, between western SD and eastern SD.  I guess that this means we'll be leaving early in the morning.

As for the rest of the trip, it's an ever-changing situation.  The GFS, ECMWF and GEM-GLB don't agree at all after about Sunday, so it could be a case of a) staying in the eastern plains for a week, b) going to the western Dakotas for Monday, c) going to Alberta/Saskatchewan for Tuesday, d) bouncing back and forth between the western Dakotas and the eastern Dakotas, or e) having nothing to chase at all after Tuesday.  Frankly, it appears to me that e) is highly unlikely, and if I were a betting man I'd bet on d).

For those of you following along virtually, here's our tracker page again.

Hopefully, time and sleep permitting, there'll be lots of tweeting from the road and more in-depth blogging throughout the upcoming week.

Chase on!


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