Saturday, June 13, 2015

We're baaaaack, and just in time for storm chase season, too

The U of M trip is getting ready to set out and, as has been custom in the previous years, I thought I'd do a long-range forecast for chasing, mostly to illustrate how futile it really is.  I'll base the forecasts on the models cited under each date, those being the GDPS (formerly GEM-Global), GFS, GEFS, ECMWF and (for laughs) CFSv2.

Day 1 (June 20):
GFS: Eastern CO to northern KS
GEFS: Eastern CO to eastern SD
ECMWF: Eastern CO to eastern NE
GDPS: Eastern CO to southeastern NE
CFSv2: OK/TX panhandles

Day 2:
GFS: Black Hills of SD to Denver, CO
GEFS: Nebraska, eastern WY and NE CO
ECMWF: Eastern NE, western NE/southeast WY
GDPS: Eastern CO/southeastern WY/western NE
CFSv2: Western Dakotas to NE CO

Day 3:
GFS: Central Dakotas (!)
GEFS: Dakotas
ECMWF: Eastern WY/MT
GDPS: Iowa (sucks)
CFSv2: Central Dakotas

Beyond day 3 of this forecast, a bunch of models drop off because they only go out that far into the future.  As we get closer to go time, we will have more models to look at every day.

Day 4:
GFS: Southern MN to northern IA
GEFS: Eastern Dakotas
CFSv2: Southern AB or SW SD

Day 5:
GFS: Eastern CO to western KS
GEFS: Eastern Dakotas
CFSv2: Alberta or Dakotas to Nebraska

Day 6:
GFS: Eastern CO to most of KS
GEFS: Eastern Dakotas
CFSv2: SE SK to eastern Dakotas

Day 7:
GFS: Western SK or NE CO
GEFS: Eastern Dakotas to western WI
CFSv2: Eastern Dakotas

So there you have it.  For reference, have a look at previous forecasts for previous years to see how they panned out.

In short, up until about 3 days before we go, there will be a) significant variation amongst the different models, and b) significant variation from one run to another of the same model.  So living and dying by the models is a great way to give yourself an ulcer.

I'm really looking forward to meeting you students and seeing my old friends.  I left Manitoba late last summer and I've only been back for one brief visit.  

I'll try to do this more or less every day until we leave, but because of numerous personal commitments until that point, I can't guarantee it.  But here's hoping!

Oh, by the way: I'll repeat this later again, but if your friends and family want to follow along with us, we have a pretty neat page up and running with our location on a map and selected tweets from a few of us.  The URL is:


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