Wednesday, June 21, 2017

July 20 forecast

Day 1 (June 23): almost guaranteed to be a ravel day if we chase
NAM: TX panhandle/eastern NM
GFS: northeast NM/TX panhandle
GEFS: eastern CO/eastern NM/TX panhandle
GDPS: southeast CO
ECMWF: eastern CO/northeast NM
CFSv2: northern TX panhandle/northeast NM

Day 2 (June 24):
GFS: north-central NM
GEFS: northeast NM
GDPS: eastern CO/western KS
ECMWF: northeast N
CFSv2: northern TX panhandle/northeast NM

Day 3 (June 25):
GFS: southeast CO/northeast NM
GEFS: southeast CO/eastern NM
GDPS: southeast CO/southwest KS
ECMWF: south-central CO/north-central NM
CFSv2: eastern NM/west TX

Day 4 (June 26):
GFS: southeast CO or central AB
GEFS: eastern NM to western KS
GDPS: eastern CO/northeast NM
ECMWF: eastern CO or east-central AB
CFSv2: eastern NM or central AB to central MT

Day 5 (June 27):
GFS: central NE or central AB
GEFS: eastern NE
GDPS: eastern CO/western KS
ECMWF: western KS, southern MB or central AB
CFSv2: eastern NM, the Dakotas or southern MT

Day 6 (June 28):
GFS: eastern SD/NE to western MN/IA
GEFS: eastern NE/western IA
GDPS: central KS to central NE
ECMWF: northern KS to eastern ND
CFSv2: southwest KS to northern TX panhandle or eastern W/western SD

Day 7 (June 29):
GFS: eastern ND to eastern KS
GEFS: NE/IA border
GDPS: eastern ND/western MN to central OK
ECMWF: western NE or most of IA and IL
CFSv2: northwest NE/southwest SD

Day 8 (June 30):
GFS: western IA
GDPS: central IA
CFSv2: northwest NE/southwest SD

Day 9 (July 1):
GFS: most of NE
GEFS: northeasy KS
CFSv2: most of SD

Day 10 (July 2):
GFS: eastern MT to northeast CO to southern IA
GEFS: northeast NE to southwest MN
CFSv2: most of ND, southern SK, southern MB

It now seems model solutions are coming more into agreement, at least for the beginning of the forecast period.  As usual, this makes the departure date more complicated.  A few factors are coming into play.
  1. Models are in fair agreement that a pretty good setup is likely on June 24 and 25 in eastern CO and vicinity
  2. Models are in okay agreement that better setups will occur starting on June 26
  3. Models are showing some serious instability toward the end of the trip if we had a late departure
  4. Models get worse and worse the farther into the future you go

So do we go and get good storms and maybe really good storms, all while having to return when there's the conditional chance of some *great* storms, or do we leave a couple of days later, catch what will likely be really good storms and then unknown after (but models are saying it'll be really good)?


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