Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Is today the day we get consistency?  Let's see.

Day 1 (June 20):
GFS: SD/NE/IA border
ECMWF: Eastern NE/western IA
GDPS: Eastern SD
CFSv2: NE/northeast CO

Day 2 (June 21):
GFS: Eastern NE/western IA
GEFS: Eastern CO/Nebraska/IA
GDPS: Western KS
CFSv2: Eastern CO

Day 3 (June 22):
GFS: Western SD to eastern NE
GEFS: SD/northern NE
ECMWF: Western NE to eastern CO
GDPS: Western Dakotas
CFSv2: Eastern MT to NW KS

Day 4 (June 23):
GFS: Western ND to northeast NE
GEFS: SD/eastern ND
ECMWF: Eastern WY
GDPS: Eastern Dakotas
CFSv2: Western SD to northeast KS

Day 5 (June 24):
GFS: SW Nebraska to central WI
GEFS: SD/eastern ND/MN/IA
ECMWF: Eastern WY
CFSv2: Western NE to central IN

Day 6 (June 25):
GFS: Eastern WY to northern IL
GEFS: Eastern WY to northern IL
ECMWF: Western NE
GDPS: Southern SD
CFSv2: Southern IA to western NY (hahaha)

Day 7 (June 26):
GFS: SE MT to northern IL
GEFS: Eastern WY to northern IL
CFSv2: Southern SK to western SD

So the day 1 model runs are pointing rather consistently now to a pretty good show in the eastern Dakotas to eastern Nebraska.  After that, though, there's pretty much no consistency.  This is more or less a hallmark of a zonal flow--little wavelets will cause most of the weather.  If there were a big trough out west or, much worse, a big trough out east, then the models would be pretty consistent in depicting that--the models have a tendency to be good in the more amplified situations and not so good in the less amplified ones.

This is pretty encouraging, I think, because a zonal flow means that moisture won't be a problem, but it'll just be the timing of the flow/waves/lift.  The problem with that, though, is that it may involve quite a bit of driving from one day to the next.  (Although not necessarily.)


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