Monday, June 15, 2015

As we get closer and closer to the trip, we should likely see more consistency both run-to-run and amongst different runs.  Let's see if that's the case yet.

Day 1 (June 20):
GFS: Southern MN, IA and southern WI
GEFS: Eastern Dakotas to southern WI
ECMWF: Western IA
GDPS: Western IA
CFSv2: Eastern WY to northeast CO to southern NE

Day 2 (June 21):
GFS: KS/NE border
ECMWF: Central AB or eastern CO
GDPS: Eastern CO
CFSv2: Central MT to northwest MO

Day 3 (June 22):
GFS: Western Dakotas to southeast NE
GEFS: Dakotas
ECMWF: Central SD or central NE
GDPS: Western NE or western KS
CFSv2: NE WY to northern IA

Day 4 (June 23):
GFS: Southern NE to lower Michigan
GEFS: Dakotas or MN
ECMWF: Southeast IA to northern IL
GDPS: Central NE
CFSv2: Northern IL to lower MI

Day 5 (June 24):
GFS: Western Dakotas or southern MB
GEFS: Dakotas
ECMWF: Eastern MT to northeast CO
GDPS: Dakotas
CFSv2: Eastern WY or northern IL

Day 6 (June 25):
GFS: Western IA to northeast MN
GEFS: Eastern Dakotas
CFSv2: Central MT

Day 7 (June 26):
GFS: Southern NE

Well, we're not at consistency yet.  Model-to-model is still really all over the place.  And that makes sense, as the upper features that'll be affecting our trip are right now being (poorly) picked up by satellites over the Pacific ocean.  Funny enough, though, I had a look at the day before our trip starts--that day being Friday, June 19.  And lookie, lookie, the models are in really good agreement on that day, that there should be a really good show in South Dakota.

So perhaps with tomorrow's model runs we'll start to get a clearer picture on things.  It sure looks to me, though, that we'll likely have storms every day of the trip--it's just going to be a matter of whether the storms will be influenced by good flow.  And you'd be surprised what even modest flow can do with good instability.  As a very well-known and -respected forecaster is wont to say, big CAPE kicks big ass.


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