Thursday, June 18, 2015

Forecasts for far in the future: that's all, folks

I was going to do another forecast for long-range to super long-range, but a) I got busy doing other stuff, and b) I think I proved my point.

So now, let's focus on what the times and regions of general agreement are, as they will determine when we leave and what our initial target is.

At this point, it's a toss-up as to whether we leave Saturday or Sunday.  It appears a slumping cold front will stall somewhere in the central plains states and then rebound north as a warm front.  How far south this front goes before it stalls will dictate our first move.  If it looks like it'll go too far, i.e. away from the good upper flow, we'll hang out for a bit.  If it should stall beneath the good flow, then we'll leave earlier.

What is also in focus, now, is the general idea that there will be instability and shear juxtaposed, and they will likely come together for a good chunk of the trip, if not all of it.  Right now I don't foresee us chasing in Canada, but that could always change.  It looks like we will most likely be spending a good amount of time in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana and maybe Colorado.  (If you think this sounds like a lot, ask me sometime about the time we decided to go for a walk in the woods.)

I'm cautiously optimistic.


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