d'oh!

well, tomorrow looks like it could be a very explosive day. and wouldn't you know it--i have to work a night shift.

both the gem and nam seem to agree that there's going to be a surface low (trigger, shear) between broadview, sk and virden, mb tomorrow late afternoon/evening. ngm and gfs have it a touch farther north, but it's the same general location. most models seem to agree on having a subtle short-wave trough moving through the area at the same time (instability), and mid-level wind speeds around 40 to 50 knots (shear). the question, as is always the question when we get into august, is moisture. is there rich enough moisture going to be in place? well, current dewpoints in (especially) southwest manitoba aren't too bad--they're in the 15 to 19 degree range. with a day or so of intense heating giving evapotranspiration in the area as well as continued advection of the moisture in place from the northern plains through to the corn belt, i think moisture might end up not being a problem. will it be deep enough? that remains to be seen.

bottom line? if i weren't working tomorrow evening, i'd wake up in the morning, do an analysis (a good forecast stems always from a good analysis, right?) and likely head out the door in the direction of virden. (psst, they have a good library there.)