Saturday, June 24, 2017

Bonus forecast for the trip, posted July 24

Here's an extra forecast for the trip that I did up this morning.

I’ll say that the week looks interesting, and we should be able to catch some really good storms.
It’s interesting that there’s a bit of model spread on the evolution at the beginning of the week and the end, but not so much in the middle.  In other words, Monday and Friday are the big question marks.
Some models have less moisture returning into Kansas on Monday and some have more, so the character of the storms will be affected greatly.  If the moisture is slower to return, then perhaps southern KS is more in play or even into CO.  So that makes it an even better idea to make it to Kearney tomorrow.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are all good to great days, depending on the model you choose, and the locations vary but the most highly variable day is Tuesday, which could be good anywhere from Nebraska to Manitoba.  A broad moderate westerly upper flow will overspread the entire region, so it’ll be a bit of a needle-in-a-haystack thing, and I think playing the edge of the cap will be best.

Wednesday should be central to east KS or NE, with a warm front and perhaps dryline bulge play.  On that, the models are in good agreement.

Thursday, same thing, except maybe more instability and a stronger dryline.

Friday is where it gets highly questionable.  The 06Z GFS smashes a cold front waaay south now, to the point that nothing would be a good play.  The 00Z and 12Z runs of the GFS don’t do that but take that day’s play a little east, potentially into the jungles of central MO and potentially into the flats of IA.  The ECMWF portrays another warm front play in the central plains, with tons of instability and pretty good flow over KS.  The GDPS actually agrees with the ECMWF, too.  So we will see; to say it’s highly in question is a fair statement.
This looks like it will be a good trip.  Pack lots of shorts, because aside from an occasional cold outflow, most of the time we should be in the 80s and 90s F during the day and, at night, 60s early on and upper 60s to 70s later on.

I have had good luck this year in finding good places to eat, so aside from helping with the other stuff, I’ll endeavour to find us some yummy food.  My search for good burnt ends is in full force, too, so I may steer us to BBQ places that serve them, but I will try to include some variety as well.  Chasing will still be #1 and, if the only place we can get food once done chasing and lightning photography (I suspect this year will be perfect for it, BTW—warm evenings and storms going well into the nightttime hours) is Pizza Hut or Applebee’s, well, that’s fine too.  It’s storm chasing first, not eating.  That’s just a sideshow. :)
I plan on being at the vans around 7:15.  I have my 2 ham radios set up, charged and ready to go.

My laptop is good and ready to go—it’s an old workhorse, about 2011 vintage, but all the software is installed and updated.

I'm getting stoked for the trip.


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